Most explanations of the massive blackout in India point to extraordinary circumstances and inadequate supplies of electricity. In fact, the central and state governments' mismanagement of the supplies that do exist deserves much of the blame.
SUNILA S. KALE is an assistant professor in the Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies at the University of Washington, Seattle. SUMIT GANGULY is a professor of political science and holds the Rabindranath Tagore Chair in Indian Cultures and Civilizations at Indiana University, Bloomington.
Just a few years ago, India seemed on the brink of becoming the world’s next great power. Today, its future appears less certain. Although some have blamed the global economic recession, the real problem is domestic -- namely, the centralized, secretive, and arbitrary political culture that pervades New Delhi.
Indian children study by kerosene lamp. (Rupak De Chowdhuri / Courtesy Reuters)
India can boast of the world's biggest democracy and its oldest culture. And now it has added another superlative: site of history's largest power failure. The country's electricity grid faltered on July 30, 2012 and then again the following day. An area that is home to more than half of the country's population -- between 600 million and 700 million people -- went dark.
Most of those living in that area, however, did not feel the loss. A sizeable portion own backup power sources, either diesel-powered generators or inverters, which work like giant batteries. They charge up when electricity is available; when it isn't, they can be used to power whole households. Those who owned generators and inverters turned them on as soon as the grid failed, and their lives went on as normal.
Another part of the population -- millions of people -- didn't feel the outage because they were never connected to the grid to begin with. The states in northern and eastern India, which bore the brunt of the blackout, have among India's lowest rates of electrification. According to the 2011 census, in Uttar Pradesh, the largest state in India and one of those that lost power, only 24 percent of the state's 25 million rural households are electrified. For comparison, China's household electrification rate had already exceeded 98 percent by 2003.
Millions likely did lose power, though, and transportation ground to a halt, stranding rail passengers and choking already dense streets and highways. In addition, the blackout renewed global doubts about India's ability to sustain high growth...
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The West accounts for a disproportionate share of world income because it has already passed through capitalist development. Now that Asia is becoming capitalist, it will return to the center of the world economy, where it was in the early nineteenth century. Current currency crises are only blips on the screen. Asia's miracle transpired not because of shrewd industrial policy or great leaps forward but because countries attracted foreign investment and moved up the development ladder one rung at a time. But ahead lies the challenge, particularly for India and China, of establishing modern governments.
After being shackled by the government for decades, India's economy has become one of the world's strongest. The country's unique development model -- relying on domestic consumption and high-tech services -- has brought a quarter century of record growth despite an incompetent and heavy-handed state. But for that growth to continue, the state must start modernizing along with Indian society.
A combination of factors is inexorably pushing India toward what may be described as a political and economic watershed. The decisions and actions that its leadership takes-or fails to take-this year may shape the history not only of India but perhaps of Asia for a long time to come.
