Last December, the chubby and blubbering soon-to-be leader of the hermit kingdom seemed too inexperienced and unqualified to ever consolidate his rule. Today, Kim Jong Un is riding high, having become the first Korean to launch a domestically designed satellite into orbit on the back of a domestically designed rocket. North Korean society, though, is changing all around him, and lobbing missiles might not be enough to keep him in power.
VICTOR D. CHA is D.S. Song-KF Professor of International Affairs at Georgetown University and Senior Adviser for the Asia and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He is the author of The Impossible State: North Korea, Past and Future. This work was supported by the Academy of Korean Studies Grant (MEST) (AKS-2010-DZZ-2102).
As North Korea issues increasingly over-the-top threats, officials in Washington have sought to reassure the public and U.S. allies. But the risk of nuclear war on the Korean Peninsula is far from remote--and the United States should adjust its military planning accordingly.
Kim Jong Un bows to statues of his grandfather and father. (Courtesy Reuters)
One year ago, the chubby and blubbering soon-to-be leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea was seen walking alongside the hearse that carried his dead father, Kim Jong Il. Kim Jong Un was young, inexperienced, unqualified, and bereft of any of the larger-than-life myths that had sustained his father's and grandfather's rules. And yet, just days later, he assumed power in the only communist dynasty in the world.
Today, the junior Kim can be seen riding high in Pyongyang. And last week, he became the first Korean to launch a domestically designed satellite into orbit on the back of a domestically designed rocket. But more broadly, some analysts see him as pushing his own version of reform. His new ways might not exactly be Gangnam style, but they are undeniably a break from the past. He promulgates high heels and miniskirts for women and commissions amusement parks and (pirated) Walt Disney productions for children. Never too busy to ride rollercoasters and frolic with school kids, the prince of Pyongyang also found time to take on a wife, Ri Sol-Ju, whom the New York Times compared to the British Duchess Kate Middleton.
Related
Things may look bad, but North Korea can stagger on for a long time before it collapses. The famine there, limited information seems to reveal, is due not to shortages of food but to political decisions in Pyongyang. But unification would be so costly for South Korea - about $1 trillion over 10-25 years - and a mass southward exodus so debilitating that the South will instead try to prop up the North. China will provide food, and the United States fuel, while the North muddles through with a form of apparatchik capitalism similar to Romania's, in which officials channel resources to favored groups.
The North is desperate for stability; why that may be impossible.
THE declaration on Korea made at Cairo by the heads of the United States, British and Chinese Governments reminded the world of a problem which it had almost forgotten. Freedom for Korea is not an issue invented by the Allies to weaken Japan. During the 34 years that have passed since the Japanese annexed their country the Koreans have waged an unceasing struggle for independence.
