The Development Decade in the Balance
"Hope," said Sir Francis Bacon, "is a good breakfast but it is a poor supper." The 1960s began with hope for the economically underdeveloped countries, but it is becoming uncertain how they will end. Unless the Development Decade, as President Kennedy christened it, receives greater sustenance, it may, in fact, recede into history as a decade of disappointment. The amount of finance moving from the developed to the underdeveloped world is not rising; and the present trend is for the growth of the low-income countries slowly to lose momentum.
"Hope," said Sir Francis Bacon, "is a good breakfast but it is a poor supper." The 1960s began with hope for the economically underdeveloped countries, but it is becoming uncertain how they will end. Unless the Development Decade, as President Kennedy christened it, receives greater sustenance, it may, in fact, recede into history as a decade of disappointment. The amount of finance moving from the developed to the underdeveloped world is not rising; and the present trend is for the growth of the low-income countries slowly to lose momentum.
Almost two-thirds of the world's population live in underdeveloped countries; but they have only one-sixth of the world's income. The condition of mankind can be outlined quickly with a few brutal statistics. Defining countries with a per capita income of under $100 as very poor, those with a per capita income of from $100 to $250 as poor, those with a per capita income between $250 and $750 as being of middle income, and those with a per capita income of more than $750 as the high-income countries, here is how the world's people are distributed:[i]
Very Poor 990 million Middle-Income 390 million Poor 1,150 million High-Income 810 million
Just how poor the approximately two-thirds of the world in the Very Poor and Poor Countries are is illustrated by comparing their per capita income of less than $250 with the average per capita income of $1,400 in the Common Market countries (population: 175 million), and the United States' (population: 194 million) per capita income of about $3,000.
The underdeveloped countries are seeking to enter the twentieth century, but many of them, in some respects, have not yet reached the nineteenth. Many still need to achieve the preconditions of industrialization, including stable government, an acquisitive outlook and technical capacity. The price of admission to industrial society, moreover, is much higher than it was a century ago. Technology is costlier, capital requirements are greater, established producers are harder to overtake in world commercial competition...
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An economic bnoom is underway in China, and the United States is in danger of isolating itself from the benefits. A forward-looking policy would not only offer tremendous opportunity for American investment,trade and jobs, but it could also be a force for political moderation in Beijing.
Only a few years ago pundits were sure that the United States was losing to Asia and Europe and had to emulate their more state- directed economies to remain competitive. Now the conventional wisdom is that America is number one and that the rest of the world should adopt its more laissez-faire approach. In fact, neither caricature is right. Asia was booming and now it is slumping, but it will be back. Europe's underlying ossification will persist. But most important, while the U.S. economy is in a period of robust growth, nothing fundamental has changed. Its long-run growth rate has not accelerated, productivity has not risen, and the structural unemployment rate has fallen by one percentage point at most. Come the next recession, all this triumphalism will seem silly.
American political and business leaders need to capitalize on a groundswell of democratic and market-opriented reforms underway in this oft-neglected region in the world. "Washington must discard its Cold War approach to relations with south Asia and stop viewing the region primarily in terms of its potential threat to U.S. interests"; a rapidly growing south Asian middle-class is creating one of the "world's most important emerging markets" and bolstering regional stability.

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