Peacemaking in the Middle East: The Next Step

Three years into the Camp David process, it is time to question its continued usefulness. On the level of their bilateral relations, Egypt and Israel continue to fulfill their respective obligations under the 1978 Accords and the March 1979 Peace Treaty. Yet attempts to elaborate and expand upon these agreements in an effort to achieve a comprehensive Middle East peace have met enormous obstacles. Negotiations over the proposed "autonomy" for the West Bank and the Gaza Strip are nearing a dead end. At issue are the most fundamental national aspirations and interests of the parties involved. Their differences on these issues can no longer be papered over by ambiguous legal formulations. Efforts to overcome these various problems incrementally are unlikely to produce significant results.

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In Israel, enthusiasm for the proposed West Bank autonomy has withered-a process that began almost as soon as the plan was conceived. Increasingly, Israelis conclude that "real autonomy" can lead only to an independent Palestinian state-a perception which is not shared by their Palestinian neighbors. The fundamental problem from Israel's perspective is whether it can afford to yield control over the West Bank. The area's proximity to the state's essential core makes this a critical issue. The establishment of a possibly radical Palestinian state so close to Israel's heart is a source of much Israeli concern. Fear that such a state would threaten Israel's very existence is widely shared.

With such fears, Israel's flexibility in the autonomy talks is necessarily limited. Making concessions is difficult because each issue-from the proposed unit's water system to the source and nature of authority-is weighed for its impact on the end result: an independent state or otherwise. Whether or not Israel's fears regarding an independent Palestinian state are entirely justified is a question well worth examining. For the moment, however, it is politically significant that such concerns are widespread and are likely to block attempts to establish a "real autonomy" in the West Bank. Israel's stakes in the autonomy talks are enormous; her ability to compromise is limited.