The Ploughshares War between Europe and America
Not for the first time, agricultural trade has become a live and contentious issue in Atlantic relations. Questions of access and protection have been subjects of constant concern to American farmers and traders since the establishment of Europe's Common Agricultural Policy 25 years ago. Now, though, under the pressures of surplus stocks of grain and falling farm incomes, there is a new area of contention--competitive subsidies designed to win or ensure shares in an erratic world market. Months of negotiation have failed to resolve the issue and neither the European Community nor the United States has shown any sign of being ready to sacrifice what both define as legitimate economic interests.
Nicholas Butler is a Research Fellow at The Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House, London. He is preparing a study of international agricultural trade relations for Chatham House, to be published in 1984.
Not for the first time, agricultural trade has become a live and contentious issue in Atlantic relations. Questions of access and protection have been subjects of constant concern to American farmers and traders since the establishment of Europe's Common Agricultural Policy 25 years ago. Now, though, under the pressures of surplus stocks of grain and falling farm incomes, there is a new area of contention-competitive subsidies designed to win or ensure shares in an erratic world market. Months of negotiation have failed to resolve the issue and neither the European Community nor the United States has shown any sign of being ready to sacrifice what both define as legitimate economic interests.
The bilateral relationship between the United States and the European Community has dominated international agricultural trade relations for the last 30 years. European and American attitudes to proposals for the liberalization, regulation or management of key agricultural product markets have determined the role and success of international institutions, and the fate of attempts to reach international agreements on agricultural matters. Domestic policy decisions, taken in Brussels and Washington, have determined not only the state of the world market but have also become important and divisive items on the agenda of trade talks, ministerial meetings, and summits.
The attitudes and policies of the two sides have not remained constant throughout the period; external circumstances as well as the dynamics of the domestic agricultural policies pursued on each side of the Atlantic have shifted the areas of contention. The issues at stake in the current set of bilateral negotiations-initiated after the ministerial meeting of GATT (the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) in November 1982 had failed to make any significant progress on agricultural trade matters-are very different from those of a decade or two decades ago.
They are also more serious. Unless those negotiations result in a major shift of policy on one or both sides, along the lines suggested below, even a temporary settlement will leave open the potential for future conflicts-conflicts perhaps inevitable in one form or another given the nature of agricultural policymaking and the lack of concern generally shown for the international or external effects of internal national policies.
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The United States recently "discovered" Mexico. Potential oil reserves of 200 billion barrels helped focus our attention and sparked interest in forging some kind of special relationship with our southern neighbor. Concrete proposals range from a North American Accord or Common Market to less dramatic package deals that would swap petroleum for increased Mexican access to U.S. markets.
In recent years, the strong American recovery in overall production and employment has been accompanied by further deterioration in the merchandise trade of the United States with other countries. The reasons for focusing on American merchandise trade are not merely parochial; it is important for Europeans and others to understand that this poor trade performance of the United States reflects a disequilibrium in the world economy as well as in the American domestic economy. Political strains in many countries have been the inevitable result. The promises made at last year's Williamsburg Summit with regard to international trade and finance have not been fulfilled. If anything, international tensions arising from economic issues have increased during the past year.
Buffeted by drought and protectionism, agriculture is emerging as a key issue in the politics of international trade. Because international agriculture cannot be divorced from domestic farm programs, foreign trade officials and others in the diplomatic community are being forced to confront issues beyond their normal purview. "I sit there talking about soybeans," lamented Italian Foreign Minister Guilio Andreotti during an interminable debate with his European partners, "and I don't even know what the miserable things look like."

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