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Nuclear War and Climatic Catastrophe: Some Policy Implications

Carl Sagan
Winter 1983/84
Summary -- 

Apocalyptic predictions require, to be taken seriously, higher standards of evidence than do assertions on other matters where the stakes are not as great. Since the immediate effects of even a single thermonuclear weapon explosion are so devastating, it is natural to assume--even without considering detailed mechanisms--that the more or less simultaneous explosion of ten thousand such weapons all over the Northern Hemisphere might have unpredictable and catastrophic consequences.

Carl Sagan is David Duncan Professor of Astronomy and Space Sciences and Director of the Laboratory for Planetary Studies at Cornell University. He has played a leading role in the Mariner, Viking and Voyager expeditions to the planets, for which he has received the NASA medals for Exceptional Scientific Achievement and (twice) for Distinguished Public Service. Study of the Martian atmosphere led to the research by Dr. Sagan and his colleagues described here. He has served as Chairman of the Division for Planetary Sciences of the American Astronomical Society; as President of the Planetology Section of the American Geophysical Union; and, for 12 years, as Editor of Icarus, the leading professional journal in planetary science. Dr. Sagan is also a recipient of the Peabody Award and the Pulitzer Prize.

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