U.S.-Soviet Relations: The Return of Arms Control
On November 23, 1983, the Soviet Union walked out of the intermediate-range nuclear force negotiations in Geneva and shortly thereafter suspended the strategic arms talks, thus closing down all U.S.-Soviet nuclear arms control negotiations.
Arnold L. Horelick is Director of the Rand/UCLA Center for the Study of Soviet International Behavior and served as National Intelligence Officer for the U.S.S.R. and Eastern Europe in Washington, D.C., from 1977 to 1980. Portions of this article draw heavily on a paper by the writer and Edward L. Warner III (_U.S.-Soviet Nuclear Arms Control: The Next Phase_) presented on October 19, 1984, at a conference on U.S.-Soviet relations sponsored by the Rand/UCLA Center for the Study of Soviet International Behavior. The writer wishes to acknowledge the contribution of his colleague, Mr. Warner. Copyright © 1985 by Arnold Horelick.
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Negotiations between the United States and the Soviet Union on nuclear arms control are at an impasse. Following the deployment in Europe of the first U.S. Pershing II and cruise missiles in the fall of 1983, the Soviet Union walked out of the negotiations on intermediate-range forces (INF) and refused to agree to a resumption date for the negotiations on strategic nuclear forces (START). Whether and under what conditions the negotiations will resume is uncertain.
Calls for a more pragmatic judgment of the technological implications of military trends. Reviews significance of strategic defence, ICBMs and counterforce, targeting, basing, SLBMs and cruise missiles. Recommends "specific bilateral agreements and judicious unilateral choices in force modernization".
"The INF treaty singles out for elimination all land-based missiles of a specified range". Gives the background to the treaty from 1979. In effect it resulted from the USSR calling Reagan's bluff on his zero-option proposal of 1981. The consequence is that the West is on the defensive, lacking a coherent approach and compelled to proceed on the basis of its present policy. The lesson of the treaty is therefore for the West to define its long-term objectives, and the roles of the USA and Western Europe within them. US deputy assistant secretary for defense (policy plans), 1977-81.
