Castro has embarked on a programme of economic re-centralization to encourage the economy, and a new socialist ideological drive to encourage the people. Cuba has thus turned back from the trend of communist countries to graft at least some capitalist methods on to their economies. Internal troubles are forecast as a result of this. Cuba's partly-homegrown foreign policy, in particular its relations with the USA and the USSR, is also discussed.
Jorge I. Domínguez is a professor of government at Harvard University. His book, To Make a World Safe for Revolution, will be published in 1987. His research on Cuba has been supported by the Ford Foundation.
Cuba is at a turning point. President Fidel Castro has been using his power boldly during the past two years to reshape internal affairs along lines not seen since the late 1960s. Instead of delegating authority to powerful subordinates, as-he had done since the early 1970s, he has recentralized it. Instead of liberalizing the economy, he has reversed several market-reliant policies of the past decade. And instead of stressing pragmatic policy goals, he has again been emphasizing the need to follow the "correct" ideological route in building socialism.
Despite these internal changes, Cuban foreign policy has remained on course. What Cuba does, and what happens in Cuba, matters because its government has been "the mouse that roared" in world affairs. Cuba has posted personnel overseas in three dozen countries, ranging from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe. In no fewer than a dozen of these, including "world hot spots" such as Nicaragua, Ethiopia and South Yemen, there is also a Cuban military presence. No fewer than 30,000 Cuban troops support the Angolan government.
Cuba’s high profile is due both to the strong support of the Soviet Union and to its own assertive leadership style. Cuba is, simultaneously, the Soviet Union’s most effective ally in the Third World and a prominent member (with Castro a former president) of the Nonaligned Movement. Cuba participates in Latin American politics and is a full-fledged member of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance, which binds the Soviet Union to its partners. And, of course, Cuba and the United States are neighbors; this proximity also contributes to the island’s significance.
In late 1984, President Castro looked around and did not like what he saw at home. He began a reorganization of internal affairs, dismissing many top government and party leaders from various organizations and factions. The three key changes have been the 1985 dismissals of the interior minister, Ramiro Valdés; the president of the Central Planning Board, Humberto Pérez; and the party secretary for ideology, Antonio Pérez Herrero. One common theme of these dismissals is that the officials’ work, though on some counts successful, displeased President Castro, as did their conspicuous display of decision-making autonomy.
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A Russian oil tanker moves slowly past the sixteenth-century Spanish castle guarding the narrow entrance to Havana harbor. Castle and tanker symbolize dominion, but of very different kinds. To the Spaniards, Cuba was first and foremost a source of wealth-its own wealth and the wealth of Latin America to which it held the strategic key. To the Russians, it represents an economic loss on the order of some $350 to $400 million a year. The payoff for them is in the coin of political strategy: an extension of the frontiers of communism to the Western Hemisphere.
Speculates on the continuance of Castro's rule, deprived of Soviet support.
Fidel Castro is not on the way out anytime soon. In fact, he may be the best guarantor of Cuba's peaceful transition to a market-oriented economy and more democratic government. A good analogy is with Spanish autocrat Francisco Franco. Like Franco, Castro allied himself with the losing side in the grand sweep of history, but he has slowly reintegrated his nation with the world by pushing tourism, seeking foreign investment, gradually liberalizing the political system, and expanding civil liberties. Castro has more support in Cuba than many in the West think, and the United States should begin a phaseout of its embargo tied to Cuba's economic and political performance.

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