Blundering Into Disaster: Surviving the First Century of the Nuclear Age
Since leaving the World Bank six years ago, former Secretary of Defense McNamara has promoted the cause, in an ever more passionate manner, of nuclear reductions and arms control. This book brings together many of his beliefs. The risk of nuclear war, he states, is growing: "We are on the verge of a dramatic escalation of the arms race-an escalation to levels that will be more and more difficult, if not impossible, to control." Nuclear warheads, he asserts, are not "usable" weapons; NATO should no longer base its policy on their potential first use. McNamara's argument is clear and concise, sometimes to the point of appearing simplistic. It will be compelling to those who share his world view, but certainly not to others-such as most of the officials currently dealing with defense in Washington, some of whom he targets with gusto. His heaviest salvo is launched against the advocates of the Strategic Defense Initiative, which he sees as fundamentally flawed and incompatible with arms control. Even for those who disagree, the thinking of such a seasoned practitioner, courageously stated, deserves respect.
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If the USA is to sustain its role in the world, it needs a bipartisan foreign policy. "There is a strategic opportunity for a significant improvement in Soviet-American relations", while NATO needs redefinition as a guard against utopianism and in the light of economic integration in Europe. Also notes the US budget problem and relations with Japan and China. In the Middle East, supports guaranteed Israeli and Palestine states. Reviews pan-American issues. In general calls for "more selective and collaborative strategies based on new realities". Former US secretaries of state. The footnotes indicate the points on which the authors disagree, viz (1) the future of SDI (2) directions of arms control in the future (3) the value of an international conference on the Middle East.
Will Russia be run by democrats or oligarchs? The signs are worrying. The West would rather not dwell on the extent to which Russia's market is dominated by robber barons and permeated by crime and corruption. Russia's democracy is weak, with unfair election campaigns, a compromised media, and few checks on the presidency. The West cannot afford to let Russia descend into chaos, which might mean losing control of Russia's arsenal of weapons of mass destruction, but its two-faced NATO expansion policy hurts the democrats' chances.
Defends the traditional, pessimistic evaluation of NATO's conventional capabilities against revisionists, and argues that "NATO is highly unlikely to make the conventional force improvements seemingly dictated by the INF treaty". Predicts a Soviet arms control offensive upon "a vulnerable and divided NATO... the alliance has painted itself into a corner, and the paint will not dry". Despite all this, NATO will continue to prevent war in Europe.
