The State, Religion, and Ethnic Politics: Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan
Experts on the three neighboring states discuss the interaction of central government and the forces of nationalism, ethnicity, tribalism and religion. Although all three are Islamic countries, they have such different traditions and conditions that comparisons are of limited usefulness, but these studies do push out the frontiers of knowledge and might well be helpful in building a sounder basis for decisions on policy in the area. Perhaps we should note, however, that in the case of Iran in the past decade the American academic experts were not in agreement and many of them proved to be as wrong as the politicians and diplomats.
Related
The two key issues are development aid levels and Pakistan's nuclear policy. On the first, argues that the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, plus US budget constraints, indicate that "extraordinarily high levels of aid cannot and should not be maintained". On the second, asserts that the USA should, if it proves unable to persuade Pakistan to renounce its nuclear programme, lower its sights and settle for Pakistani agreement not to test nuclear weapons.
The accords were signed in 1988 by Afghanistan and Pakistan, with the USA and USSR as 'states guarantors'. They preclude Pakistani assistance to the Afghan resistance, but do not mention the Soviet involvement other than stating a timetable for troop withdrawals, whilst a voluntary repatriation of refugees is to be effected within a stated period. Gives detailed background to their signature. Charges that Afghanistan has been 'sovietized' so that the regime will not fall apart. Warns of a "repetition of the Ethiopian tragedy" in respect of the refugees. The accords have provided for "the long-term Soviet consolidation of control".
Ahmed Rashid has it wrong. The Taliban's days are, mercifully, numbered.

Sign-up for free weekly updates from ForeignAffairs.com.