Petroleum and Mexico's Future
These papers by four Americans and three Mexicans go far beyond oil, which is just as well since, as René Villereal points out, although Mexico is the fourth-largest petroleum producer in the world, hydrocarbons represent only ten percent of its total national product. The political effects of Mexico's economic troubles and the future of trade with the United States are well treated by experts.
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Exaggerated claims and charges are obscuring the facts about the North American Free Trade Agreement. Over time, in almost every instance, what's good for Mexico would also be good for the United States.
To the United States, the labor and environmental costs of NAFTA would be minimal and the economic benefits real, but small. The trade agreement is really about helping a friendly and important neighbor in its yet uncompleted economic and political reform.
The Salinas regime has ardently pursued the North American Free Trade Agreement as a silver bullet to kill myriad political and economic problems. But NAFTA as it stands would exacerbate many of Mexico's enduring disparities and injustices. Short term adjustment costs and the possibility of backsliding on political reform have largely been overlooked. NAFTA must be designed to contribute to political reform. Otherwise, postponing the accord would not weaken Mexico-only Salinas.
