Brazil's Economic And Political Future
Twenty-six brief chapters on contemporary Brazil, two-thirds of them by Brazilians, provide an illuminating composite picture by focusing on the role of political parties, the military, the church and women in politics, and by examining Brazil's economic problems and potential from a variety of angles. Although several essays seem ephemeral and perhaps superfluous, this is a useful and reasonably up-to-date collection on an important country.
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As in other Latin American countries that have returned to democracy this decade after bitter experiences under military regimes, Brazil's "New Republic" came to power with wide public support. The 1985 transfer of power from the military to the politicians went smoothly. The political and labor climate was relatively calm. The productive base of the economy was solid and business sectors wanted to give democracy a chance. Brazil had a foreign debt of over $100 billion, but huge trade surpluses made foreign creditors willing to refinance the debt. Under these circumstances the transition did not have to go badly. But it has.
In the run-up to the October presidential election in Brazil, financial markets panicked at the prospect of a left-wing administration that might want to repudiate national debts. Now that Lula has taken office, will he confirm these fears or embrace prudent policies that will advance the modernization of Brazil? And will the markets even give him a chance?
Growing differences over trade and foreign policy threaten to upset the delicate balance in U.S.-Brazil relations. To head off trouble, Washington should lower its expectations, remembering that it has a greater stake in Lula's domestic success than in Brazil's active cooperation on any particular issue.

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