China's Global Presence
Eight specialists assess China's political and economic reforms, prospects for increased Sino-American trade, China's high-tech future, Taiwan's political and economic ambitions, China's role in superpower competition and the PRC's impact on regional stability. An arresting analysis by Albert Keidel argues that there are very few conditions under which the Chinese reforms could fail. By the year 2000 he says China's economy will have easily surpassed official targets to quadruple the output of industry and agriculture. He is particularly bullish on the dynamic coastal provinces that hold nearly half of China's population.
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Soviet options in East Asia are limited by the USSR's lack of economic influence, but Gorbachev's new flexible diplomacy has led to limited advances. Discusses current relations with China, Japan, and the two Koreas, noting that influence in the Pacific region's economy is likely to be marginal for the next few decades. Concludes that prospects are good for a reduction in tension in the region.
Three issues preoccupy Asia's leaders (1) economic strategy (2) political stability versus greater openness (3) regionalism. The accelerating socio-economic revolution presents challenges to both the Marxist and the democratic states. There is a requirement for increased public participation, greater local autonomy and more regional and international interaction. On balance the odds favouring a largely peaceful revolution are lengthening.
Despite recently signing the long-awaited trade deal with the United States, Vietnam's communist leadership is split by uncertainty about the country's economic and political future. Without an economic overhaul soon, Vietnam risks being relegated to the global dustbin. Officials, however, remain wary of too much international engagement and know that capitalism would destroy the one-party state. Change in Vietnam is inevitable. But it will occur through an evolution, not a revolution.

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