Middle East Opportunities

The Middle East and South Asia are the most dangerous regions in the world today because of the combination of bitter local conflicts, great power involvement, and a new and frightening arms race. President George Bush will face a range of difficult foreign policy choices in this area early in his term, from the new U.S. opening to the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), through a postwar settlement in the Persian Gulf between Iran and Iraq, to the fragile domestic scene in Pakistan and India, and the precarious situation of the Soviets in Afghanistan.

The agenda for the region is already set in place as the Bush Administration takes office. Although there is room for flexibility in the American approach, the basic determinants were laid down by the events of 1988 and the eight-year record of the Reagan Administration.

Dramatic and often surprising events across the region marked the year 1988; some pointed to a lessening of tensions, some intensified confrontations that had long simmered below the boiling point, and some, coming in the last days of the year, increased the need for timely diplomatic initiatives by the United States.

II

The most immediate of the diplomatic challenges involves the emerging U.S. policy toward a restive Israel and a seemingly more conciliatory PLO. The long-standing U.S. relationship with Israel and a new official relationship with the Palestinian national movement have thrown U.S. policy toward the region into uncharted waters. The evolution of the Palestinian problem in the last year of the Reagan Administration was rapid, even startling, to those who have become accustomed to futile impasse in this long-standing rivalry.

In early December 1987 the Palestinians living in the West Bank and Gaza initiated the intifadeh, or uprising. The sudden drama of this event forced Secretary of State George Shultz to become reengaged in the peace process. Among others, Shimon Peres, Israeli foreign minister at the time, believed that the only way to achieve a breakthrough in the peace process was to involve Jordan's King Hussein, under the rubric of an international conference. Shultz undertook his own version of shuttle diplomacy and made three visits to the area in February, April and June 1988, trying to gain support for a revised Middle East peace plan.