Unkept Promises, Unclear Consequences: U.S. Economic Policy And The Japanese Response
Several major American economists differ in their diagnoses of the trade imbalance between the United States and Japan. The editors' unsurprising prescription is for more cooperation since both are "significantly responsible." They suspect, though, that there will be "serious trade friction" that will make things worse.
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The new president cannot wait until his January 20 inauguration to signal boldly how he will deal with urgent economic problems at home and abroad. He should confront Congress as a tough fiscal conservative on domestic spending and open discussions with German and Japanese leaders on trade, growth, and currency issues.
In less than five years Japan will have a population profile like Florida's. Indeed, Japan's population is aging faster than that of any other country. A future with only two workers for each retiree will force radical change. It will shrink savings, turn the trade surplus to deficit, and drive more industry overseas. These demographic and economic factors will push Japan toward an increasingly independent foreign policy, causing friction with America. Tokyo and Washington must seek new arrangements cognizant of a maturing Japan.
Japan faces its biggest foreign policy challenges since World War II. Its leaders must snap out of their deep funk to confront a rising China, a nuclear South Asia, a United States increasingly prone to Japan-bashing, and a world in economic free fall. Instead of sulking over the growing closeness of U.S.-China ties, Tokyo should take the initiative and propose trilateral dialogues with Beijing and Washington on a range of issues, especially Asian security, nuclear disarmament, and macroeconomic policy. Japan's pessimism threatens the world's prosperity. If Tokyo stays on the sidelines, the world will pass it by.

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