In my frequent visits to the United States these days, I am asked most insistently two questions about Europe: "What will happen in 1992?" and "Can a united European market work?" Many Americans are either skeptical about the future of Europe or nervous about it. Some predict that when put to the test a united Europe will quickly splinter under national and local political pressures. Others fear that Europeans will drop their internal trade barriers only to erect a higher new external wall, creating a kind of "Fortress Europe."
Giovanni Agnelli is chairman of Fiat, s.p.a., of Turin, Italy.
In my frequent visits to the United States these days, I am asked most insistently two questions about Europe: "What will happen in 1992?" and "Can a united European market work?" Many Americans are either skeptical about the future of Europe or nervous about it. Some predict that when put to the test a united Europe will quickly splinter under national and local political pressures. Others fear that Europeans will drop their internal trade barriers only to erect a higher new external wall, creating a kind of "Fortress Europe."
I have reason to believe that neither of these doomsday scenarios will come to pass. My hope is not mere irrational optimism, but is rooted firmly in the history of the last forty years. Who would have believed that the very same nations that twice in this century nearly destroyed each other would be as closely united as they are now? If we are able to travel a similar distance in the next forty years, a truly united Europe is well within our grasp.
When I think of the progress we have made, I always remember the first trip I made to America in 1939-perhaps the most important journey of my life. Eighteen years old, having just graduated from high school, I was sent by my grandfather to learn as much as possible about the United States and the Detroit auto industry.
The world was so much larger and more divided then. My ocean voyage took four days; now such an excursion takes four hours by plane (and is often made entirely unnecessary by the multitude of electronic ties that bind us). The cultural distance was even greater than the physical divide. I felt then that I had left behind a small and badly split Europe, on the brink of war, and arrived in a country that was the world's center of finance and industry-and yet viewed itself as politically isolated from the rest of the globe.
At the time of that first trip, Italy was a small, largely agricultural nation and Fiat was almost exclusively an Italian company. Now Italy has grown into the world's fifth-largest industrial nation, and Fiat-the 34th-largest corporation in the world-is the largest in Europe and is traded on the New York, London and Frankfurt stock exchanges. My belief in the possibility-indeed the necessity-of a united European market comes directly out of this increasingly internationalized experience.
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Only a few years ago pundits were sure that the United States was losing to Asia and Europe and had to emulate their more state- directed economies to remain competitive. Now the conventional wisdom is that America is number one and that the rest of the world should adopt its more laissez-faire approach. In fact, neither caricature is right. Asia was booming and now it is slumping, but it will be back. Europe's underlying ossification will persist. But most important, while the U.S. economy is in a period of robust growth, nothing fundamental has changed. Its long-run growth rate has not accelerated, productivity has not risen, and the structural unemployment rate has fallen by one percentage point at most. Come the next recession, all this triumphalism will seem silly.
America's economy is in its eighth year of sustained growth, transcending the German and Japanese "miracles." This is no fluke. America's unique brand of entrepreneurial capitalism is based on a series of advantages that explain the stunning success of the 1990s and provide the basis for extending this winning streak. These strengths include deft managers, technological innovation, and a culture that values rugged individualism -- all fueled by finance capital that can nimbly meet the needs of a globalized, rapidly changing economy. Furthermore, the era of the deficit is over. Pessimists who warn of inflation should be ignored; American business leaders understand that today's low level of inflation is self-perpetuating. America's prosperity is structural, not transient, and its lead over Europe and Asia will only widen with time. America had the twentieth century. It will also have the twenty-first.
The French always seem to be opposing the United States on some issue or other. They coddle Saddam Hussein and denounce American "cultural imperialism." Why is France so difficult to deal with? It is, quite simply, in a bad mood, unsure of its place and status in a new world. The French are jealous of America, which seems to run the world; afraid of globalization, which threatens to erode their culture; and ambivalent about European unification, which might drown out their voice. France must meet these challenges while struggling with a cumbersome statist economy and a rising extreme right. To do it all, France must transcend itself.
