After the Thatcher Debate

By the time the next British general election takes place in 1991 or 1992, Margaret Thatcher will have been prime minister for more than 12 years. In 1987, after eight years in office, her majority of over 100 seats in Parliament remained more or less what it had been after the 1983 election, a contest held in the aftermath of the Falklands campaign. Until about a year ago the Conservative Party maintained a substantial lead in the opinion polls. By any standard this is a remarkable political achievement-only one other British prime minister, Lord Liverpool, has lasted as long-and the 1980s in Britain will be remembered as the Thatcher Decade.

Is her dominance now beginning to falter? Over the last year there have been signs that the government's support was slipping. Last June the European elections saw a swing to Labour and the loss of 13 Conservative seats, as well as the emergence of a "Green" party. Admittedly there were special circumstances that placed the Conservatives in difficulties in that election. But since then Labour has been running ahead in the polls, usually by between five and ten points, and these surveys have also shown the unpopularity of a number of government policies. Above all, it is the recurrence of inflation and the steep rise in interest rates to counter it, and the sudden resignation of Chancellor of the Exchequer Nigel Lawson on October 26 that have thrown Conservative members of Parliament into disarray and spread discontent among some Tory voters.

Is all this an ordinary midterm swing in government popularity, or is it a chance for the "new look" that Labour has given its policies to have an effect on the electorate, offering Neil Kinnock's Labour Party some hope of victory in the 1990s?

To answer such questions it is as well to bear in mind the changes brought about in British society by ten years of Conservative government. For what is called "Thatcherism" has not been merely a series of political measures. Starting with the aims of stimulating individual effort and enterprise and weaning citizens from dependence on the state, it has created, or triggered, a social and economic revolution, the results of which will continue to be felt for many years to come and cannot be reversed by subsequent governments.

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