Post-Khomeini Iran

The death of the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini on June 3, 1989, closed a turbulent chapter in Iran's long history and opened a new and still uncertain phase in its evolution as a nation. The passing of the man who branded America as the "Great Satan" also created expectations that a decade of U.S.-Iranian animosity will, in time, come to an end.

In the last few months an indirect and unacknowledged dialogue has begun between Iran and the United States-prompted, unfortuitously, by Israel's abduction of a radical Lebanese Shi'ite leader, Sheikh Abdul Karim Obeid, on July 28, and the subsequent execution of an American hostage in Lebanon, Colonel William Higgins. Despite its tragic auspices, this indirect dialogue has been noteworthy for its largely moderate and unprovocative tone and the efforts of both sides to avoid confrontation and crisis.

These developments bode well for the future of U.S.-Iranian relations. Before any breakthrough can be expected, however, certain trends in Iran must continue and deepen. Similarly, U.S. attitudes will need to develop in new directions and some of the old premises of U.S. policy toward Iran will need to be reassessed in response to the changing scene there.

II

Most observers of Iranian affairs had long expected that Khomeini's death would create a power vacuum in Iran, with intense infighting among its Islamic leaderships. Developments during the months immediately preceding the Ayatollah's death only fueled these expectations. Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, the designated successor as Iran's spiritual leader, was abruptly and unceremoniously dismissed on March 28, 1989; moderating trends in Iranian politics were reversed amid the outcry against the controversial author Salman Rushdie; radical figures appeared to have regained Khomeini's ear and favor.

During this period Iran's leadership was engaged in a heated debate over the reform of its Islamic constitution, focusing especially on the respective roles of the president, the parliament and the prime minister. As it stood, the constitution, especially the division of executive power between the president and the prime minister, had made governing almost impossible.