Pacific Destiny: Inside Asia Today
Robert Elegant, a talented journalist and fiction writer, does for East Asia what Hedrick Smith, Robert Kaiser and David Shipler did for the Soviet Union. He has authored a balanced, thoughtful and beautifully written account of the spectacular rise of East Asia to economic predominance during the past several decades. Elegant's advice to the United States, if it is to meet the Asian challenge, is to achieve coordination among industry, academia, government and finance, and to make a major psychological adjustment that gets away from "quarter-by-quarter vision."
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Soviet options in East Asia are limited by the USSR's lack of economic influence, but Gorbachev's new flexible diplomacy has led to limited advances. Discusses current relations with China, Japan, and the two Koreas, noting that influence in the Pacific region's economy is likely to be marginal for the next few decades. Concludes that prospects are good for a reduction in tension in the region.
Wall Street financial managers may eye China's economy with pleasure and awe, but the engine of its growth is exploited labor. Since Deng Xiaoping declared getting rich glorious two decades ago, China's embrace of capitalism has made sweatshop socialism a reality for millions of Chinese workers. Although some economists claim the workers' day will come with continued growth, double-digit rises in GDP have not translated into a better life. Exhausting hours, scant pay, draconian work rules, psychological harassment, and physical punishment are the seamy underside of China's economic miracle.
In less than five years Japan will have a population profile like Florida's. Indeed, Japan's population is aging faster than that of any other country. A future with only two workers for each retiree will force radical change. It will shrink savings, turn the trade surplus to deficit, and drive more industry overseas. These demographic and economic factors will push Japan toward an increasingly independent foreign policy, causing friction with America. Tokyo and Washington must seek new arrangements cognizant of a maturing Japan.

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