Yalta Yesterday, Today, Tomorrow
Laloy is a French diplomat with long experience in Soviet affairs. Here he puts the Yalta Conference in the context of the whole course of Anglo-American-Soviet relations in World War II and its aftermath. He tells his story briefly but with all essential elements, pointing out the weaknesses and miscalculations of Churchill and Roosevelt but also disposing of the myth, widely believed in France thanks to de Gaulle, that Yalta was a cynical conspiracy to partition Europe. For tomorrow, the recommendation is not to go on arguing about Yalta endlessly but to understand it and learn its lessons.
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What enthusiasts took for a global rush to democracy may be reversing direction, with backsliding and stalled transitions in the former Soviet Union, Africa, the Middle East. So far, one sees disarray or new strongmen much like the old; no competing ideologies seem to be beckoning. Market reforms have not been the cause in most cases. More affluent countries with Western ties seem to be sticking the course better. However the trend plays out, it should lead the administration to rethink democracy promotion. The truth is that U.S. policy is not significantly responsible for democracy's advance or retreat in the world.
Russia's interests demand good relations with everyone, but older, darker forces tempt it to avenge its fall from superpowerdom. Westernizing democrats govern for now, but ex-communist elites and embittered generals scheme to re invigorate the military and reassert control over the borderlands. Their machinations are creating a fault line across the oil-rich Caucasus and Central Asia. For Russia to neglect its reconstruction to pursue the illusion of power would be a monumental mistake. While the expansion of NATO is misconceived, the West must not encourage Russian hard-liners with unmerited concessions.
