Develops the notion of a new 'triangular' diplomacy involving the post-Cold War economic superpowers -- USA, FRG and Japan -- and explores the diplomatic adjustments which the USA should be prepared to make to accommodate its new strategic partners.
Peter Tarnoff is President of the Council on Foreign Relations.
This summer the nations that emerged victorious from World War II will commemorate not only the 45th anniversary of their triumph but also the endurance of a remarkable period of peace and prosperity for the members of the Western alliances. In most respects we should not be surprised at the success of those Americans and Europeans responsible for building the post-World War II alliance system. They understood and had learned from the flaws of the 1919 Versailles Treaty; they worked hard to integrate the defeated countries into congenial security and economic arrangements rather than isolate and alienate them.
Roosevelt and Truman, Churchill, Attlee and Stalin, however, could never have imagined at Yalta or Potsdam that a resurgent Japan and Germany would become, in their children's lifetimes, the second and third most powerful economies in the world, and countries whose international influence would be exceeded only by that of the United States.
Dramatic and sometimes disturbing as these developments may be to many in the West, they offer clear directions for American foreign policy. Washington should move quickly to fully engage Tokyo and Bonn (or rather Berlin, when it becomes capital of a united Germany) in all major discussions about the shape of the post-Cold War world. While the United States, Germany and Japan must avoid fueling the suspicions of other governments that they intend to constitute a new tripartite "directorate," it is strongly in the American interest to assure that a shared vision informs policies in Washington, Tokyo and Berlin.
II
Why is it that Japan and Germany have grown more rapidly since 1945 than their Western partners, including the United States? What effects, if any, did their defeat and occupation by Allied forces have on their astounding postwar development?
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For over half a century Japan and Germany have been at the heart of America's international preoccupations. After a long and destructive war against both countries, the United States worked exhaustively to help its two erstwhile enemies recover and build democratic societies secure under the American defense umbrella. From the late 1960s to the mid-1980s, victor and vanquished moved to a more balanced relationship, especially in trade and finance. Today, in one of history's great role reversals, Tokyo and Bonn have become Washington's fierce trading rivals and also its primary bankers.
Forecasts the emergence of an international order based on 'civilian powers', defined as states dependent on economic co-operation, supra-national structures, and primarily economic (rather than military) means of defending the national interest. A discussion of the potential of the FRG and Japan as such powers.
US consciousness of the APR focuses mainly on bilateral trade imbalances. "Less understood... is how substantially the balance of economic power within the Asian-Pacific region itself has shifted away from the United States and how that inevitably changes the distribution of political influence in the area".
