East-Central Europe: The Morning After
Although the intoxication of the revolutions of 1989 has been followed by painful realizations of the pervasive legacy of the communist period (attitudes, bureaucracy), the West should remain optimistic that long-term objectives for economic revitalization can be achieved.
Charles Gati is Professor of Political Science at Union College and author of The Bloc That Failed, Hungary and the Soviet Bloc, and other works.
Eastern Europe is now east-central Europe. The political earthquake that occurred in 1989 has shifted the region's six former Soviet allies away from the East and closer to the West. All are now independent and all now embrace the concept of free enterprise. The countries often identified as central European-Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia and what was East Germany-have already adopted democratic institutions. Farther to the south, in the Balkans-in Bulgaria and especially in Romania-democracy has yet to be won.1
Like most things hyphenated, east-central Europe is absorbed in an ardent and arduous search for a new identity. The euphoria of 1989 has given way to the painful awakening of the morning after. The magnificent display of common purpose and the simple clarity of last year's peaceful revolutions-us versus them, the people united against the communist proprietors of power-have been replaced by confusion, division and disappointment.
There is confusion because the struggle is no longer only between "us" and "them," but among us. Wherever the communists submitted to the popular will and lost, new divisions have come to impede the work of some of the freely elected, noncommunist governments. In Poland, the impressive unity of Solidarity is gone. With pressure for Slovak autonomy rapidly growing, Czechoslovakia has already been renamed the Czech and Slovak Federal Republic. In Hungary, there is an intense struggle under way between those concerned foremost with the fate of millions of ethnic Hungarians in neighboring countries, especially in Romania, and those whose main priority is the shaping of a political and economic order that Europe will welcome. Only in the Balkans do old dividing lines remain largely intact. Election results in both Bulgaria and Romania reveal a puzzling divergence between city-dwellers, who voted against the communists, and the rural population, who returned them to power.
Confusion and division have sparked disappointment as well. Anxious and impatient, many people ask: Was not the new democratic order supposed to be economically advantageous, politically harmonious and morally uplifting? Must the transition be as slow and as painful as it is? Will it be better only for the next generation, or even for the generation after that? Why does the West appear to be losing interest now that a democratic east-central Europe-already independent and mostly free-is within reach?
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During his recent visit to Poland, General de Gaulle discreetly but repeatedly called upon the Central European countries to assume an independent and creative role. By challenging the unnatural East-West dichotomy in Europe he showed himself again a statesman of vision. Yet, regrettably, while he has a highly desirable political goal he has failed to choose the means most likely to attain it. The French Government in the last few years has not favored the growth and cohesion of the European Economic Community (E.E.C.) and other common institutions of the West and has sought to raise the independent international status of France. It is essential to the General's plan that analogous processes be stimulated in Central Europe: in his mind the rigid commitments of nations east and west of the Elbe to antagonistic "blocs" impede the rapprochement between these nations, the definitive elimination of the Iron Curtain and the restoration of a "European Europe."
Some form of regional sub-grouping is required to accommodate the security interests of the former Eastern bloc countries pending the evolution of a feasible continent-wide security order, such as a 'Danubian grouping', and a 'northern, more or less Baltic grouping'. NATO and the CSCE process offer the surest foundation for developing a new European order over the long term.
In 1992 economic conditions declined dramatically in Russia, leading to a rise of conservative political forces and increased expressions of anti-Americanism. In the new year, Russia faces major challenges: preventing hyperinflation, continuing privatization and obtaining a better price for oil exports. It must also deal with mounting social problems runaway crime, faltering health services and large-scale unemployment. Dangerous ethnic and religious conflicts continue. Meanwhile, in eastern Europe, there are positive economic and political trends among all the problems in Poland, Hungary and the Czech republic. The region remains a priority for renewed and effective U.S. attention.

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