"Today there is not, as some argue, a single superpower, the United States; there are none". National power rests on a triad of (1) military power (2) economic and technological competitiveness (3) social cohesion and public consensus on national goals. Though pre-eminent in the first, the USA has faltered on the other two, with the result that "the world is moving towards a restored pluralism of power, a multipolar geopolitics". Concludes with speculation on three variables likely to shape the multipolar world (1) the future of the disintegrating USSR (2) relations within the EC, particularly as affected by German unification (3) how far the USA will be able to retrieve its position in respect of the second and third legs of the triad.
William Pfaff's latest book is Barbarian Sentiments: How the American Century Ends (1989). He is a contributor to The New Yorker and a columnist for The International Herald Tribune and The Los Angeles Times.
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In the twenty-first century, power will be diffuse rather than concentrated, and the influence of nonstate actors will increase. But the United States can still manage the transition and make the world a safer place.
If the USA is to sustain its role in the world, it needs a bipartisan foreign policy. "There is a strategic opportunity for a significant improvement in Soviet-American relations", while NATO needs redefinition as a guard against utopianism and in the light of economic integration in Europe. Also notes the US budget problem and relations with Japan and China. In the Middle East, supports guaranteed Israeli and Palestine states. Reviews pan-American issues. In general calls for "more selective and collaborative strategies based on new realities". Former US secretaries of state. The footnotes indicate the points on which the authors disagree, viz (1) the future of SDI (2) directions of arms control in the future (3) the value of an international conference on the Middle East.
According to legend, when Cornwallis surrendered at Yorktown in 1781, he sent the British army marching out with colors cased and drums beating to the tune, "The World Turned Upside Down." Repeatedly over the intervening years, as in the preceding centuries, history has harbored those who have turned the world, or whose world has turned, upside down. Some were bent on radically uprooting, others on beneficially preserving, each according to his own lights. Revolutionaries and traditionalists alike frequently find the world behaving contrary to expectations.
