China Briefing, 1991
In the Asia Society's annual review Richard Baum argues that the trauma of Tiananmen continues to cast a dark shadow over the Chinese political scene. The Chinese Communist Party has suffered a dramatic loss of prestige and popularity; there is swelling religious and ethnic unrest in China's remote western provinces; and there is a rising tide of provincial economic assertiveness that borders on defiance of the center. Ed Winckler's informative survey of Taiwan reports that by the end of this decade Taiwan, with only 20 million people, could become the world's tenth-largest trader, the world's largest supplier of information products and the trade, financial and commercial center of the western Pacific.
Related
The Republic of China (R.O.C.) has a unique international personality. It was a founding member of the United Nations, yet since 1971 it has not been a member state of the U.N. or of any of its specialized agencies. It has scored impressive successes in political, economic and social development and in science and technology--indeed, the R.O.C. today is ranked as one of the most developed of the developing countries. Yet it has been asked to leave the World Bank, the World Health Organization, UNESCO, the International Atomic Energy Agency and other international organizations. The R.O.C. even faces the danger of losing its membership in the Asian Development Bank.
Can Mao or the inheritors of Mao's authority entertain the possibility of some "separateness" for any Chinese within his egalitarian One China world? The answer to this question will influence Peking's attitudes toward peaceful coexistence with Taipei, intellectual and cultural diversities at home, and possibilities for future organization of China's economic system.
China may be the most important country in America's future. Its power is undoubtedly on the rise, and Washington must give it due regard. U.S.-China relations have recently made great progress, particularly on trade-related issues. But the relationship is fraught with tensions that could explode into conflict at any time. The next administration needs to get China policy right, before disaster strikes.

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