Changing Fortunes: War, Diplomacy, And Economics In Southern Africa
This volume is a contribution to the South African Update Series initiated in the mid-1980s as a follow-up to South Africa: Time Running Out, a 1981 report of a foundation-sponsored commission on American policy in southern Africa. The Update Series, now overtaken by events and shorn of its focus on policy recommendations, nevertheless stands as a useful and authoritative retrospective on the 1980s. Changing Fortunes reviews South African and superpower relations to interventions in southern Africa. It looks at the mixed results of efforts by those states to lessen their economic dependence on South Africa, as well as the rise and retreat of "constructive engagement" as an American diplomatic strategy dictated by suddenly obsolescent Cold War priorities. A fourth chapter, adopted from a 1989 U.N. report, notes the sickening toll in lives lost directly and indirectly as a result of these power rivalries: 1.3 million dead in Angola and Mozambique alone, a high proportion of them children. Five landmark documents are included as appendices.
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Examines the nature and extent of Botha's reforms, and their failure culminating in the 1986 state of emergency. Despite his policies to defeat or co-opt all opposition groups both black and white, the confrontation between government and anti-government forces is deepening. Traces how and why South Africa reached the top of the US and Western political agenda, which led to the end of Reagan's policy of constructive engagement and the failure of the Commonwealth's EPG, and the beginning of disengagement. The effects of sanctions and South Africa's policies towards the front-line states are polarizing the country and worsening the crisis throughout Southern Africa.
President Reagan's sweep of 49 of the 50 states in the November 1984 elections set in motion mutations within both the Republican and Democratic Parties that have substantially affected U.S. relations with Africa. The mushrooming of groups and individuals in the coalition known as the Free South Africa Movement is ascribed by its founder, TransAfrica's Randall Robinson, to a post-election assessment that a very daring gamble was the only hope of keeping anti-apartheid activism alive in the face of another four years of "constructive engagement." On another front, the congressional leaders of the shattered Democratic Party seized upon apartheid as the most promising issue for drawing Jesse Jackson's constituency and other blacks sidelined during the campaign back into the party's mainstream. The 35 Republican congressmen who dispatched a sharply worded letter of protest against Pretoria's racial policies to South African Ambassador B. G. Fourie in December 1984 were at least partially motivated by a new belief that it was historically and practically shortsighted for the Republicans to concede the black vote and the civil rights constituency as a given to the Democratic Party.
Conflict between the administration and Congress exemplifies the disarray of US policy towards Southern Africa. Reviews the background to the passage of the Anti-Apartheid Act, the goals of which, however, are not achievable in terms of practical politics. The Reagan administration has concentrated on white opinion, when a strategy of "black empowerment", defined as dialogue with the black leadership, would be more fruitful. Notes the relationship between regional re-stabilization and the use (or threat) of sanctions. For the remainder of 1988 the administration should concentrate on Namibia and Angola.
