Changing Fortunes: War, Diplomacy, And Economics In Southern Africa
This volume is a contribution to the South African Update Series initiated in the mid-1980s as a follow-up to South Africa: Time Running Out, a 1981 report of a foundation-sponsored commission on American policy in southern Africa. The Update Series, now overtaken by events and shorn of its focus on policy recommendations, nevertheless stands as a useful and authoritative retrospective on the 1980s. Changing Fortunes reviews South African and superpower relations to interventions in southern Africa. It looks at the mixed results of efforts by those states to lessen their economic dependence on South Africa, as well as the rise and retreat of "constructive engagement" as an American diplomatic strategy dictated by suddenly obsolescent Cold War priorities. A fourth chapter, adopted from a 1989 U.N. report, notes the sickening toll in lives lost directly and indirectly as a result of these power rivalries: 1.3 million dead in Angola and Mozambique alone, a high proportion of them children. Five landmark documents are included as appendices.
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Conflict between the administration and Congress exemplifies the disarray of US policy towards Southern Africa. Reviews the background to the passage of the Anti-Apartheid Act, the goals of which, however, are not achievable in terms of practical politics. The Reagan administration has concentrated on white opinion, when a strategy of "black empowerment", defined as dialogue with the black leadership, would be more fruitful. Notes the relationship between regional re-stabilization and the use (or threat) of sanctions. For the remainder of 1988 the administration should concentrate on Namibia and Angola.
Examines the nature and extent of Botha's reforms, and their failure culminating in the 1986 state of emergency. Despite his policies to defeat or co-opt all opposition groups both black and white, the confrontation between government and anti-government forces is deepening. Traces how and why South Africa reached the top of the US and Western political agenda, which led to the end of Reagan's policy of constructive engagement and the failure of the Commonwealth's EPG, and the beginning of disengagement. The effects of sanctions and South Africa's policies towards the front-line states are polarizing the country and worsening the crisis throughout Southern Africa.
Charts the development of US foreign policy efforts under Reagan in (1) the Angolan conflict (2) South Africa. Since 1981, the US assistant secretary of state for African affairs, Chester A Crocker, has pursued two main objectives in Africa (1) the reduction of Soviet/Cuban influence and cross-border conflict (2) the introduction of more liberal policies in South Africa.

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