Analogies At War: Korea, Munich, Dien Bien Phu, And The Vietnam Decisions Of 1965
Khong's interviews and newly declassified documents make a compelling case that American decision-makers in 1965 used historical analogies not only to justify decisions but to make them, most notably in the process of rejecting options. He commends the techniques for probing analogies suggested by Ernest May and Richard Neustadt in their path-breaking Thinking in Time (reviewed in Foreign Affairs, Summer 1986) but argues that the "focus on techniques diverts attention from the more fundamental psychological processes at work."
Related
Even before the Nixon Doctrine was enunciated in the summer of 1969, the international power alignments in East Asia had already been undergoing a fundamental change. The phenomenal growth of Japanese industrial might was clearly making itself felt throughout the world. The polite Japanese did not have to force themselves to be querulous in compelling the world to sit up and take notice of this new Asian industrial state. Their economy was enough of a "miracle" to attract everyone's attention. Indeed, they did everything in their power to belittle their own economic achievement. It was the prodigious yearly jump in their international trade surplus which advertised their truly embarrassing riches almost against their wish.
Last year's nuclear tests by both India and Pakistan brought world attention to the decades-old Kashmir conflict. Claimed by both countries, the former princely state has been ravaged by a war that shows no sign of ending. Both rivals have invested heavily in blood and treasure to make Kashmir their own. Now Afghan-trained mujahideen are leading the fight, bringing their own foreign brand of radical Islam. Neither New Delhi nor Islamabad has ever asked what Kashmiris want. They would not like the answer: more than anything else, Kashmiris hope to be left alone.
Just as Asia began asserting itself economically in the 1960s and 1970s, it now does so militarily. The rise of Asian military power ushers in a new age in which Western interference in Asia will prove far more treacherous and costly than ever. For the first time in modern history, Asia has the power to shape its future -- for better or worse.
