East-Central Europe After The Warsaw Pact: Security Dilemmas In The 1990s
This wise discussion of post-revolutionary Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia-east-central Europe's "triangle"-calls it a "grey zone," distinguished by its relatively brighter reform prospects but confronting instability to its south and the ripple effect of breakup in the former Soviet Union to its east. No neat resolution to its security dilemma will come soon; western Europe must first reach agreement on an institutional framework for its security and that, in turn, must await an outcome to the crisis in the former Soviet Union.
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Even in an age of nuclear weapons and intercontinental missiles, the states of Eastern Europe now dominated by the Soviet Union constitute an important element of Soviet national security, a kind of cordon Stalinaire. The one hundred million people, and the resources their governments command, contribute a significant increment to Soviet economic, technological and military power. Soviet control of these areas provides forward military bases and possession of the traditional invasion routes into Western Europe, especially across the northern plains. The Soviet position, in fact, constitutes a threat to the security of Western Europe, a pistol held at its head.
In Central Europe the greatest threat to democracy comes not from the nationalists but from the better-organized former communist parties. Encouraging Western-style conservative parties would provide economic and political competition.
Offers a portrait of the Solidarity movement during the 1980s, as an aid to understanding its role in the events of 1989. Reviews current uncertain progress in the dismantling of the central economy, and sees risks of political instability if the 'leap' into a market economy is too abrupt.
