October Surprise: America's Hostages in Iran and the Election of Ronald Reagan
The original edition of this book caused a sensation by raising the possibility that the Reagan campaign in 1980 might have negotiated with the Iranians to delay the release of the American hostages in Tehran. Before the book had even been published, partisans were taking sides and reputable news magazines were writing rebuttals. Eventually the House and Senate both launched investigations into the charges and reached the conclusion that there was no basis for most of them. Gary Sick has now written, for the paperback edition, a new preface and afterword that answer some of his critics. He seems to concede that there is no evidence linking George Bush to the possible deal, as he had initially surmised, but he still believes that William Casey was a likely conspirator. The House and Senate investigations have raised questions about the reliability of many of Sick's sources. While the author never claimed to have definitive proof, he did pull together a massive amount of circumstantial evidence, only some of which has been fully discounted by the congressional investigations. Given the nature of the case, it is hard to believe that we have heard the end of this affair.
Related
Iran is the one sore spot in an otherwise highly cooperative German-American relationship. The United States has sought to punish the Islamic state for sponsoring terrorism. Germany has tried to maintain a "critical dialogue" of limited diplomacy and commerce, much as its Ostpolitik tried to engage Soviet bloc nations during the Cold War. U.S. officials decry Germany's shady dealings and billions of dollars in loans and credits to Iran. When challenged, German officials charge the United States with hypocrisy. Lurking behind the dispute is an uncomfortable fact: in a world without the Cold War, "rogue states" are not threatening enough to force accord among Western nations.
Both in public and underground, Iranians are debating the legitimacy of the Islamic state that Khomeini built. Students challenge the notion that Islam has all the answers but evince pride in an Iran free of the shah and under no foreign master. The religious and secular elites are increasingly willing to contemplate pluralism and openness to the world, though most makers of the revolution remain obdurate and appeal to anti-Americanism to stir up the masses. Washington needs to listen to the new voices of Iran.
The Middle East that awaits the Clinton administration is a locus of terrorism, drugs, refugees, armaments and oil. Iran, newly pragmatic on domestic and economic issues, is not inclined toward cooperation with either its neighbors or the wider world. Iraq's Saddam Hussein wasted no time in testing the resolve of the incoming American president. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia find an increasingly educated middle class seeking a greater voice in the political process. Turkey, after half a century of avoiding outside entanglements, is a country at risk. The former Soviet republics of Central Asia are newly relevant to American policy, with Muslim fundamentalism on the rise and the nuclear arsenal of Kazakhstan still intact.
