Nuclear Proliferation and the Future of Conflict
A slender book, and more slender than it seems, because the first two chapters consist of an able, if unexceptional, potted history of war before 1945 and a disquisition on the impact of nuclear weapons on strategy and international politics. This leaves barely 60 pages to discuss nuclear weapons in Asia and the Middle East. The postcript makes the case that under the umbrella of nuclear deterrence (or rather umbrellas, more of which sprout up as countries acquire atom bombs), substate violence will continue to spread. A plausible case, but the author has made it elsewhere, at greater length and more convincingly.
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Last year's nuclear tests by both India and Pakistan brought world attention to the decades-old Kashmir conflict. Claimed by both countries, the former princely state has been ravaged by a war that shows no sign of ending. Both rivals have invested heavily in blood and treasure to make Kashmir their own. Now Afghan-trained mujahideen are leading the fight, bringing their own foreign brand of radical Islam. Neither New Delhi nor Islamabad has ever asked what Kashmiris want. They would not like the answer: more than anything else, Kashmiris hope to be left alone.
India's and Pakistan's nuclear tests last May were a double setback: for security on the subcontinent and worldwide nonproliferation efforts. U.S. attempts to forge warmer relations with both countries were also casualties of the blasts. The tests could spark a chain of withdrawals from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, undermining the international consensus against the spread of nuclear arms. Cold War brinkmanship is no model for diplomacy. For their sake as well as the world's, India and Pakistan need to stabilize their nuclear rivalry at the lowest possible level, ban further tests, and embrace frequent, high-level bilateral talks to ease tensions.
Just as Asia began asserting itself economically in the 1960s and 1970s, it now does so militarily. The rise of Asian military power ushers in a new age in which Western interference in Asia will prove far more treacherous and costly than ever. For the first time in modern history, Asia has the power to shape its future -- for better or worse.

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