The Battle for Egypt

CAN MUBARAK SURVIVE?

Egypt's usual calm has been shattered. Nearly every day new incidents occur in the deadly struggle between the government of President Hosni Mubarak and Islamic militants known as the Gamaa al-Islamiya, or Islamic Group. The militants gun down policemen, ambush officials and hostile intellectuals, and terrorize tourists with bombs near the pyramids or the Karnak Temple. The government hits back with equal ferocity. Suspected extremists are rounded up by the score in bloody sweeps that have left many bystanders dead or wounded. This summer Mubarak began sending his antagonists to the gallows. Groups of six and seven men were hanged on single mornings. Such mass executions are rare and shocking in Egypt.

Mubarak is facing the most serious challenge since he took over the government following the assassination of Anwar Sadat in October 1981. The danger is not so much that the Gamaa will seize power. They lack the popular appeal and the talent to take over any time soon. But they could cripple Mubarak's ability to deal with economic and political challenges that are daunting enough without the added complication of an armed insurrection. The rebellion also leaves Mubarak vulnerable to criticism that he is partly to blame for the emergence of the militant Islamic groups. His critics take him to task for failing to promote sound economic growth; for tolerating corruption and growing social injustice; and for putting off political liberalization, thus giving frustrated youths nowhere to turn to except militant Islam.

In the coming months Mubarak's confrontation with the militants will strain the special relationship that has developed between the United States and Egypt since the Camp David process began in the mid-1970s. Indeed, there is already tension between the Egyptian government and its powerful benefactor. For the United States it is impossible not to compare the current situation in Egypt with the one that led to the disastrous fall of the shah of Iran in 1979. Once again a Middle Eastern country central to America is menaced by Islamic activists. Once again American policymakers ask whether the enormous political and economic capital that they have invested in Egypt, including $35 billion in aid since 1975, is in danger of being swept away. They also question whether Mubarak's leadership adds to the risk of failure.

AN ECONOMIST'S NIGHTMARE