Holding Together South Africa

THE THREAT OF POLARIZATION

OBSERVERS OF SOUTH AFRICAN apartheid have long predicted that the imposed system of racial separation could only come to a cataclysmic end. The violent aftermath of the April 12 assassination of the popular black leader, Chris Hani, as well as the dramatic assault by rightwing Afrikaners on the site of constitutional negotiations in June, offered a glimpse of that convulsive future. But alarming as these events were, their real significance lies in the fact that neither was able to derail progress toward eventual black participation in government.

In July, South Africa's traditionally bitter enemies agreed to hold the country's first multiracial election next April 27. That vote will be the first step in implementing an unprecedented five-year powersharing arrangement. Despite persistent problems, South Africa retains significant potential for reconciliation. The imperatives that sparked multiparty negotiations since 1992 have only grown more compelling. A worsening economy continues to drive the desire for accord. All major parties, moreover, including the African National Congress, have accepted that none is strong enough to govern successfully alone. Despite the impression lent by ANC President Nelson Mandela's decision to delay calling for an end to economic sanctions, South Africa's post-apartheid transition remains on course.

The language of democracy is being spoken in South Africa by politicians who are simultaneously striving to create a new order and prevail within it. The deals still required for a lasting accord run the risk of decoupling leaders from their followings. Each major party will have to convince wary constituencies of the benefits of compromise and that their interests are not being sold out. ANC leaders, having already abandoned armed struggle, must now explain that sanctions should be lifted and power shared while many of the outward manifestations of apartheid remain. The governing National Party (NP) must still reassure its increasingly nervous white constituency of its future after one-person one-vote elections without the safeguard of a white veto. And Chief Mangosuthu Buthelezi's Inkatha Freedom Party (IFF) has already had to agree to an elected constituent assembly, and therefore a leading national role for its bitter rival, the ANC, before securing the degree of regional autonomy it had wanted.