Arafat's Police State

The projected Gaza-Jericho autonomy is only the beginning of the road for the Palestinians, not an end in itself. Amid the increased Israeli-Palestinian violence and the obstacles remaining after Israel withdraws from Gaza and the West Bank town of Jericho, a Palestinian state is being created. The symbols and trappings and the political and economic arrangements could loosely identify Gaza as the first Palestinian state, as soon as Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) leader Yasir Arafat establishes his administration in Jericho, a task that could be accomplished by early this summer.

The immediate question that arises, then, is what will be the nature of a future Palestinian state. Will it be democratic, pluralistic, secular and stable, or yet another version of Arab regimes and states that have characterized and dominated the region for the past six or seven decades?

Regrettably, a Palestinian state ruled by Arafat and his PLO cronies will likely be authoritarian, noninclusive and undemocratic. Such a state will be controlled by Arafat’s security services, which will do all that is necessary to keep themselves in power. This scenario will no doubt cheer Israeli settlers and Palestinian radicals who have vehemently and violently opposed the Israeli-PLO agreement. But it does not augur well for political pluralism, participation and, above all, institutionalization, that is, the creation of a democratic and stable Palestinian state.

A MODEL FOR TROUBLE

Palestine is on the road to becoming what Samuel Huntington has defined as a praetorian state. Such states have a low level of political institutionalization and a fractured political structure in a unstable political climate. They are not necessarily military-dominated but are rigid, top-heavy and lack a viable middle class. For such states, political stability and a democratic or even pluralistic regime are unachievable.

Gaza and to a lesser extent the West Bank have no political competition and no administrative structure to satisfy the pent-up political demands of a population that has lived under Egyptian, Jordanian or Israeli occupation since 1948. Social classes are fragmented and incapable of unified political action other than resistance, violence, defiance and terrorism.