How to Defeat Serbia
Article Summary and Author Biography
A failed Balkan policy may, through impatience or guilt, tempt the West to sue for a premature peace that rewards Serbian aggression. The West is clearly unwilling to undertake the kind of military intervention required to reverse Serbian gains. Lifting the arms embargo on Bosnian Muslims might clear Western consciences, but it will increase casualties without changing the fortunes of either side. Washington must convince its allies to take a long view and prosecute an indefinite cold war against Serbia. Sanctions and isolation, as employed against South Africa and Iraq, will force a regime change in Belgrade, and then an honorable peace.
David Gompert is a Vice President at RAND and former Senior Director for Europe and Eurasia on the Bush administrations National Security Council staff.
FIGHT FOR A PRINCIPLED PEACE
Those whose sole concern has been to keep the United States out of the Yugoslav conflict may view American policy over the past four years as successful. The rest of us, even those who had a hand in that policy, know failure when we see it. True, the war has not spread beyond Croatia and Bosnia, owing in part to an American containment strategy. Also true, the human agony would have been worse had the United States not supported an international relief effort that deserves more praise than it gets. Yet we cannot evade the larger truth: the United States promised to stay in Europe after the Cold War in order to help keep peace and sustain the democratic revolution; but a war of aggression has been waged and won by a most undemocratic regime. The United States proclaimed principles of peaceful change for a new era; but those principles have been wantonly disregarded. We said "never again"; but again the intolerable has happened in Europe.
Great as our sorrow is for the slaughter and for our mistakes, it is unfair to suggest that the United States bears the main responsibility. Our military superiority and international leadership role do not obligate us to sacrifice our sons and daughters to combat brutality wherever it occurs. Moreover, the lack of a purposeful effort by our European allies to prevent or stop a vicious conflict on their continent not only surpasses American shortcomings but has hamstrung U.S. policy. Still, we must see that American interests and values, its credibility and self-respect have been damaged in the former Yugoslavia, and we must thus recognize the face of failure.
This is a premium article
You must be a logged in Foreign Affairs subscriber to continue reading. If you wish to continue reading this article please subscribe , or activate your online account to get full online access.
Sign-up for free weekly updates from ForeignAffairs.com.