It is premature to proclaim the end of the militant pan-Islamic movement. Two men - Hassan Abdallah al-Turabi of Sudan and Sheikh Muhammed Hussein Fadlallah of Lebanon - are adapting to modern challenges in ways that reveal much about the power and appeal of Islamic movements in the Arab states. Given the enormous attraction Islam still holds for young Muslims and the lack of any convincing homegrown alternative, the Islamic era may just be dawning.
Judith Miller is a Senior Writer currently on leave from The New York Times and a Fellow at the Twentieth Century Fund. This article is based on interviews by the author in the spring and summer of 1994.
Around the 1980s an eruption of militant Islamic passion sent tremors through the Middle East: the 1979 installation in Shiite Muslim Iran of the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini; the occupation that same year of Mecca's holiest shrine; the assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat after the Camp David accords; Hezbollah's car-bomb assault on the U.S. embassy in Beirut; the expulsion of the Soviets from Afghanistan by the Saudi- and American-armed mujahedeen; the growth of the Islamic Resistance Movement, or Hamas, in Israeli-occupied territories; the election victories in Algeria of the Islamic Salvation Front; and the military coup in Khartoum that brought Hassan al-Turabi's Muslim Brotherhood to power and made Sudan the region's first militant Sunni Arab state.
But that was the 1980s. The present decade has seen mostly setbacks for the militants. Sudan, always poor, is now bankrupt and still trapped in a savage, costly civil war after five years of Islamic rule. Economically isolated, Khartoum became a political pariah in 1993, when Washington added it to the short list of countries sponsoring or assisting international terrorism. In Iran, Islamic militants vie among themselves for power in the political vacuum left by Khomeini's death. Afghanistan is locked in vicious civil strife among competing Islamic warlords. And Saddam Hussein's invasion forced the once-wealthy militant Islamic movements to choose between their traditional patrons - Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states - and their mostly pro-Saddam constituents.
Moreover, America's spectacular display of military power in the Persian Gulf War signaled Washington's determination to protect its access to oil and other vital interests. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the U.S. victory in the gulf led to American-sponsored peace talks in Madrid in 1991, which culminated two years later in Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) signing a peace accord in Washington. Now Jordan has all but agreed to a formal peace, and Syria is not far behind. Islam's defeats of the 1990s have been so widespread, so relentless, that French scholar Olivier Roy has written of "the failure of Islam," and Fouad Ajami, an eminent American analyst of Lebanese origin who pronounced the death of Arab nationalism in this journal four years ago, has concluded that "the pan-Islamic millennium has run its course; the Islamic decade is over."
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The cultural distance between the West and Islam is narrower than Westerners think. Muslim societies are more humane than portrayed in the West, while Western societies often fail to live up to their liberal mythology. Islam has protected other religions and avoided fascism, racism, and genocide. Citizens of Muslim countries may be more vulnerable to their governments and political violence, but their streets are safer and their families more stable. We could all benefit from Islamic values.
Across one of the world's most sensitive regions, radical Islam and repressive politics are gaining ground. As they consolidate their power over Afghanistan, the Taliban are starting to destabilize the entire surrounding area -- and beyond. Muslim fundamentalists from around the globe study revolution under their tutelage, rebel armies find sanctuary on their turf, and the drugs and other goods that are smuggled out of the country are undermining the economies of Afghanistan's Central Asian neighbors. The Great Game has changed, and the West must learn the new rules.
The Arab world has squandered its political inheritance of secular nationalism. In the 1980s, autocracy and young theocratic brigades overtook and exiled the older generation of liberals. The rise of political Islam was accompanied by severe economic decline in the region. But the Middle East is ripe for a post-Islamist era. A modernist Arab alternative requires large-scale economic and political reform and a coming to terms with the two bogeymen -- America and Israel.
