China's Strategic Seapower: The Politics of Force Modernization in the Nuclear Age
This careful study is narrower than it initially seems because, in keeping with Cold War usage, "strategic" means nuclear. A richly documented study of China's acquisition of nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines, a program that dates back to the 1950s. The authors conclude that the history of China's military industry explains why China could shed the legacy of past political upheavals and move into the modern age, a point specialists will ponder and perhaps dispute. Whether or not they are right, the authors tell an absorbing and convincing tale of how this technologically backward and politically turbulent country managed to create workable advanced weapon systems. As such, despite its narrow focus, the book has broad significance.
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Washington is leaving a crucial piece out of the nuclear puzzle. It will be China, not Russia or any rogue, whose nuclear policy will concern America most in the years ahead. The People's Republic has started to modernize its arsenal, and Western actions will help determine just what form China's force ultimately takes. Before rushing to deploy missile defenses, Washington should consider whether they would solve a problem or create one.
Since independence, India's nuclear policy has been to seek either global disarm ament or equal security for all. The old nonproliferation regime was discriminatory, ratifying the possession of nuclear weapons for the permanent five members of the U.N. Security Council while preaching to the nuclear have-nots about the virtues of disarmament. India was left sandwiched between two nuclear weapons powers, Pakistan and a rising China. The end of the Cold War has not ushered in an era where globalization and trade trump old-fashioned security woes. If nuclear deterrence works in the West, why won't it work in India?
The Defense Department's new report on East Asia reads as if the Cold War is ongoing. For Japan, the report signals U.S. acceptance of its ruinous trade deficits. For other Asian nations, it signals the hollowness of American superpower pretensions. The report masks the failure of the Clinton administration's trade policy. By insisting Japan remain a U.S. protectorate, Washington encourages Tokyo's reactionaries. The real threat to Asian security is not China but U.S. distrust of Japan as a true ally. Cold War military power is irrelevant to the economic challenges posed by East Asia's dynamism. Someone should tell the Pentagon.
