Bridging the Strait: Taiwan, China, and the Prospects for Reunification
Does Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou's diplomatic strategy amount to a case of "Finlandization," as Taipei drifts out of Washington's sphere of influence and into Beijing's? Or is Taiwan simply pursuing détente, while remaining a strong U.S. ally and a beacon of democratic values?
The relationship between Taiwan and the People's Republic of China is one of the most critical bilateral relationships in East Asia. China refuses to give up the right to use force if Taiwan declares independence and a pro-independence political party is gaining strength in Taiwan. An insightful book on this relationship, particularly from a Taiwanese scholar, would be very useful. Unfortunately, this book is not it. It is virtually devoid of analysis or practical policy recommendations.
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The defense of Taiwan remains at the heart of the issue of China. The recent initiatives of Peking and Washington, and the impending presidential visit, have inspired hopeful speculation. Discussion has centered on formulas for recognition and entry into the United Nations. Our alliance with the Republic of China on Taiwan has been given less consideration, and its implications are optimistically avoided. But our security relationship with Taiwan-in particular the Mutual Defense Treaty of 1954-dictates certain diplomatic solutions and precludes others. Definitive choices will have to be made, and illusions of entertaining contradictory positions will have to be abandoned. If the consequences of our defense arrangement are not grasped, and the problems not deliberately resolved, the expectations that have been aroused may be unfulfilled, and the United States may proceed to underwrite a new order in East Asia that offers at best a tense military equilibrium and perpetual American involvement in the political evolution of the region.
Taiwan's campaign to return to the United Nations merits serious attention. China is hurting its own interests by failing to understand the factors--most important, the democratization of Taiwan--that drove Taipei to seek membership. Taiwan knows that the road to the United Nations ultimately goes through Beijing, and China can promote the goal of eventual reunification if it endorses Taiwan's bid. Given that Taipei has made its U.N. participation negotiable, Beijing should recognize the opening that is being presented.
Although Beijing is usually thought of as the villain, Taipei, provocatively moving toward independence, must be reined in.

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