Value Change in Global Perspective
This book reports on the 1990-91 World Values Survey as well as more detailed studies by the authors of value changes in Europe. The central hypothesis is that higher levels of economic development bring a shift from "materialist" to "postmaterialist" values--that is, less concern with economic and physical security and more with freedom, self-expression, and quality of life. The study clearly documents such a shift in Europe over the past generation but seeks to generalize these findings to 40 societies representing 70 percent of the world's population. This shift in values provides part of the answer to the strong empirical correlation between development and stable democracy first noted by Seymour Martin Lipset and confirmed more recently by Adam Przeworski. Past a certain level of income, the kind of participation and recognition provided by liberal democracies become more important to people than basic survival.
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Competitiveness debates have contrasted countries that have industrial policies, like Japan, with more laissez-faire countries like the United States. But the pivotal difference is the level of a people's trust. High-trust societies are interlaced with voluntary organizations--Rotary clubs, Bible study groups, private schools--and thus have "social capital," which makes for the growth of large corporations in highly technical fields. Low-trust societies--France, Italy, China--tend toward small, family-owned businesses in basic goods. Social capital is not necessary for growth, but its absence tempts governments to intervene in the economy and imperil competitiveness.
Stagnating wages and growing inequality will soon threaten the stability of contemporary liberal democracies and dethrone democratic ideology as it is now understood. What is needed is a new populist ideology that offers a realistic path to healthy middle-class societies and robust democracies.
We face a threat more grave and certain than those posed by chemical weapons, nuclear proliferation, or ethnic strife: the "age wave." As life expectancy grows and fertility rates decline, senior citizens will make up an ever-larger share of the total population. The effects of this demographic shift will be staggering. It will come with a whopping price tag, which will place a massive burden on an ever-smaller working-age population. Economic, social, and even military policy throughout the next century will have to respond to this unalterable trend. Unless the West recognizes the challenges to come and devises a strategy to meet them, the future will be gray and bleak.

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