Dominance through Technology: Is Japan Creating a Yen Bloc in Southeast Asia?
Learning from America's mistakes, Japan is using tight control of technological know-how to keep its Southeast Asian partners from revving up their economies.
Mark Z. Taylor is a consultant with Price Waterhouse.
The recent recession in Japan and the resurgence of American competitiveness in various industries have helped reestablish the preeminence of U.S. manufacturing in world markets. However, while the Japanese economic threat may have receded temporarily, this turnaround has had little effect on important long-term trends in technology transfer that endanger the prosperity of American firms at home and abroad. The impact of technology transfer on economic competitiveness is already evident in the vibrant Southeast Asia region, where Japanese firms now dominate the local economies through strategic control of technology. And while members of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum meet in November to discuss free trade and investment, increasingly vocal support in the region for a Japan-anchored East Asian Economic Caucus and for the establishment of a yen bloc portends a different scenario.
The Japanese have long taken a strategic approach to technology transfer. During the Cold War, the keiretsu system and powerful government controls prevented the penetration of Japanese domestic markets by foreign firms. American manufacturers were permitted to participate in the Japanese market primarily through technology sales. This strategy allowed technology to flow into the Japanese economy while investment restrictions excluded foreigners and foreign control. Meanwhile, American businesspeople, eager to reap ready profits through sales of technology to Japan, inadvertently sold off their competitive advantage in high-technology products without gaining significant market access in return.
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Future historians may well mark the mid-1980s as the time when Japan surpassed the United States to become the world's dominant economic power. Japan achieved superior industrial competitiveness several years earlier, but by the mid-1980s its high-technology exports to the United States far exceeded imports, and annual trade surpluses approached $50 billion a year. Meanwhile, America's trade deficits mushroomed to $150 billion a year. By late 1985, Japan's international lending already exceeded $640 billion, about ten percent more than America's, and it is growing rapidly. By 1986 the United States became the world's largest debtor nation and Japan surpassed the United States and Saudi Arabia to become the world's largest creditor.
The United States is addicted to dollar devaluation. As a result, America has a false, euphoric sense of progress in its competition with Japan for key markets.
US consciousness of the APR focuses mainly on bilateral trade imbalances. "Less understood... is how substantially the balance of economic power within the Asian-Pacific region itself has shifted away from the United States and how that inevitably changes the distribution of political influence in the area".
