The Exploding Cities of the Developing World

VULNERABLE GIANTS

The rhythm of history has been the rise, collapse, and occasional rebirth of cities. Until recently urban populations waxed and waned as disease, changes in trade and technology, and shifting political fortunes rewarded some cities and penalized others. In this century the rhythm has been interrupted in the developing world, where urban populations almost always rise. Lured by the bright lights, or driven from the countryside by political and economic turmoil, population pressures, and ecological breakdown, billions of people have been migrating to the cities.

This influx strains the resources, leadership, and infrastructure of already overburdened countries. Migrants from the desperately poor interior of sub-Saharan Africa continue to come to Kinshasa, Zaire, despite the collapse of its economy and services, which has led to rampant disease and malnutrition and brought the city to the edge of anarchy. Pakistanis pour into Karachi despite factional violence characterized by car bombings and gun battles in the streets. Question marks hang in the polluted air over megacities like Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo, Jakarta, Mexico City, Cairo, Delhi, and Beijing and tens of thousands of smaller cities in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Many First World cities are also coping with waves of poor newcomers at a time when their tax base is eroding as companies and well-to-do citizens move out, driven away by high costs, crime, and a deteriorating quality of life.

More and more, the fate of cities determines the fate of nations and regions. Karachi, for instance, accounts for half of government revenues in Pakistan and 20 percent of gdp. It is the country's financial center and only port and has the highest concentration of literate people. Given the ties between Karachi's ethnic groups and powerful tribes elsewhere in the country, if the current factional violence in the city intensifies, unrest could engulf the rest of Pakistan's well-armed populace, perhaps leading to international conflicts and large cross-border movements of people.