East Asia in Transition: Toward a New Regional Order; The Southeast Asian Economic Miracle
Two unusually thoughtful collections of essays by prominent American and Asian scholars on political and economic developments in East Asia after the Cold War. The volume on Southeast Asia has an outstanding concluding chapter that seeks to summarize the reasons for the Southeast Asian economic "miracle." The factors identified are government stability, investment in primary education, pushing exports of manufactured goods rather than primary products, ideological pragmatism, some form of minimal government intervention, low inflation, and the administration of power by highly capable, committed bureaucracies that are relatively free of graft. The volume on East Asia's transition has uniformly good essays on economic and political change, the policies of the great and local powers, and the prospects for building a new regional order. Each of these volumes would be ideal for a college course.
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After being shackled by the government for decades, India's economy has become one of the world's strongest. The country's unique development model -- relying on domestic consumption and high-tech services -- has brought a quarter century of record growth despite an incompetent and heavy-handed state. But for that growth to continue, the state must start modernizing along with Indian society.
Pacific powers would like Korea to reunify slowly, but the North is soon likely to implode, its economy deteriorating as its weapons of mass destruction accumulate. Rapid reunification would spur economic growth, as in Germany, and reduce regional tensions. South Korea's liberalization of its own economy and strengthening of its civic institutions will prepare it to assist the North. China and Russia may not go along, but Western governments should stop coddling Pyongyang. America should underwrite a united Korea's security, and Japan its finances.
China's reform policies have created economic opportunities, but they have also unleashed political tensions. Some U.S. strategists advocate a containment strategy, yet such a strategy is both undesirable and infeasible. America's fortunes in Asia depend on the evolution of a China that is secure, cohesive, reform-oriented, and open to the world. Failed reform could easily lead to a nationalistic, obstructionist China. In recent years, Washington, while trying to engage the People's Republic, has driven it into a corner over human rights. America must develop a long-term strategy to integrate China into the world community and avert serious damage to this crucial bilateral relationship. And it must begin to do so now.

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