East Asia in Transition: Toward a New Regional Order; The Southeast Asian Economic Miracle
Two unusually thoughtful collections of essays by prominent American and Asian scholars on political and economic developments in East Asia after the Cold War. The volume on Southeast Asia has an outstanding concluding chapter that seeks to summarize the reasons for the Southeast Asian economic "miracle." The factors identified are government stability, investment in primary education, pushing exports of manufactured goods rather than primary products, ideological pragmatism, some form of minimal government intervention, low inflation, and the administration of power by highly capable, committed bureaucracies that are relatively free of graft. The volume on East Asia's transition has uniformly good essays on economic and political change, the policies of the great and local powers, and the prospects for building a new regional order. Each of these volumes would be ideal for a college course.
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Pacific powers would like Korea to reunify slowly, but the North is soon likely to implode, its economy deteriorating as its weapons of mass destruction accumulate. Rapid reunification would spur economic growth, as in Germany, and reduce regional tensions. South Korea's liberalization of its own economy and strengthening of its civic institutions will prepare it to assist the North. China and Russia may not go along, but Western governments should stop coddling Pyongyang. America should underwrite a united Korea's security, and Japan its finances.
A combination of factors is inexorably pushing India toward what may be described as a political and economic watershed. The decisions and actions that its leadership takes-or fails to take-this year may shape the history not only of India but perhaps of Asia for a long time to come.
Into his fourth decade in power, President Suharto has guided an impoverished, strife-ridden nation to rising prosperity and outward stability, at the cost of abridged political and civil liberties, gutted democratic institutions, and flourishing corruption. Now economic disparities, ethnic and religious differences, and the frustrated aspirations of a new generation are triggering outbreaks of violence across the islands, and what passes for politics in Indonesia is unable to cope. The unsettled succession to Suharto, 76, is, frankly, scary.
