India and the Bomb: Public Opinion and Nuclear Options
An intriguing study of what the Indian elite thinks about nuclear weapons. The data are taken from a specially commissioned survey by one of India’s leading market research companies and analyzed by several American and Indian defense specialists. The survey divides respondents into supporters of renunciation, acquisition, or the Indian government policy of ambiguity, neither renouncing nuclear weapons nor acquiring them. The survey found substantial support for current government policy. Some 57 percent of those polled favored New Delhi’s policy of neither confirming nor denying a de facto nuclear capability. Some 33 percent favored outright acquisition and only 8 percent supported renunciation. There are also informative chapters on the pros and cons of India’s four major nuclear policy options -- the above three, along with a freeze on current production.
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Since independence, India's nuclear policy has been to seek either global disarm ament or equal security for all. The old nonproliferation regime was discriminatory, ratifying the possession of nuclear weapons for the permanent five members of the U.N. Security Council while preaching to the nuclear have-nots about the virtues of disarmament. India was left sandwiched between two nuclear weapons powers, Pakistan and a rising China. The end of the Cold War has not ushered in an era where globalization and trade trump old-fashioned security woes. If nuclear deterrence works in the West, why won't it work in India?
India's and Pakistan's nuclear tests last May were a double setback: for security on the subcontinent and worldwide nonproliferation efforts. U.S. attempts to forge warmer relations with both countries were also casualties of the blasts. The tests could spark a chain of withdrawals from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, undermining the international consensus against the spread of nuclear arms. Cold War brinkmanship is no model for diplomacy. For their sake as well as the world's, India and Pakistan need to stabilize their nuclear rivalry at the lowest possible level, ban further tests, and embrace frequent, high-level bilateral talks to ease tensions.
Last year's nuclear tests by both India and Pakistan brought world attention to the decades-old Kashmir conflict. Claimed by both countries, the former princely state has been ravaged by a war that shows no sign of ending. Both rivals have invested heavily in blood and treasure to make Kashmir their own. Now Afghan-trained mujahideen are leading the fight, bringing their own foreign brand of radical Islam. Neither New Delhi nor Islamabad has ever asked what Kashmiris want. They would not like the answer: more than anything else, Kashmiris hope to be left alone.

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