Megatrends Asia: Eight Asian Megatrends That Are Reshaping Our World
Another in the now common genre of flashy books on how Asia is set to rival and overtake the West in power and influence in the 21st century. What is missing is any mention, let alone appreciation, of Asian power rivalries and mutual suspicions. If these were taken into account, a more nuanced picture might emerge. Also left out is the verdict of respectable economists such as Paul Krugman who doubt whether the present high growth rates of Asian economies can be sustained.
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Three issues preoccupy Asia's leaders (1) economic strategy (2) political stability versus greater openness (3) regionalism. The accelerating socio-economic revolution presents challenges to both the Marxist and the democratic states. There is a requirement for increased public participation, greater local autonomy and more regional and international interaction. On balance the odds favouring a largely peaceful revolution are lengthening.
Into his fourth decade in power, President Suharto has guided an impoverished, strife-ridden nation to rising prosperity and outward stability, at the cost of abridged political and civil liberties, gutted democratic institutions, and flourishing corruption. Now economic disparities, ethnic and religious differences, and the frustrated aspirations of a new generation are triggering outbreaks of violence across the islands, and what passes for politics in Indonesia is unable to cope. The unsettled succession to Suharto, 76, is, frankly, scary.
Over the past decade, China's leaders have pursued rapid economic reform while stifling political change. The result today is a rigid state that is unable to cope with an increasingly organized, complex, and robust society. China's next generation of leaders, set to take office in 2002-3, will likely respond to this dilemma by accelerating political reform -- unless a new cold war with the United States intervenes.

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