Dealing with a Russia in Turmoil: The Future of Partnership
Moscow with a Soviet hangover tests the patience even of those who most wish to engage it. As Chechnya festers, privatization lags, and the world contemplates the possibility of a communist president in the Kremlin dreaming of empire, some ridicule the notion of partnership. Russian chauvinists paint America as the enemy, but the interests of the two countries after the Cold War are compatible. The West should focus its attention--and Russia's--on common interests like nonproliferation of nuclear weapons, regional peace, and full participati0n in the world economy. America should deal rationally with irrationalities in a nation finding its way.
Jack F. Matlock, Jr., U.S. Ambassador to the Soviet Union from 1987 to 1991, is the author of Autopsy on an Empire: The American Ambassador_s Account of the Collapse of the Soviet Union.
Observing Russia’s increasingly assertive foreign policy, assault on human rights in Chechnya, unfinished democracy and market economy, and endemic crime and corruption, some in the West have ridiculed the notion of partnership and recommended policies that smack of a quarantine, if not outright reversion to Cold War confrontation. The Russian State Duma’s March 15 resolution challenging the legality of the agreement to replace the Soviet Union with the Commonwealth of Independent States, coming on the heels of the Communist Party’s strong showing in the December parliamentary elections, has fueled skepticism about the prospects for Russian democracy and responsible international behavior.
Other recent developments test the optimism of even the most enthusiastic supporters of cooperation with Russia. Instead of challenging the dangerous xenophobia mouthed by opposition politicians, President Boris Yeltsin has at times catered to it, apparently believing that will shore up his flagging popularity. Having failed to support those dedicated to building the institutions necessary for democracy and a healthy market economy, Yeltsin has removed virtually all reformers from key positions in his government while retaining many officials widely suspected of corruption. He joined in the opposition’s verbal abuse of a foreign minister who was convinced that Russia’s interests are consistent with those of the West and ultimately appointed in his place one who has long argued that Russia must take a more confrontational approach to the outside world. The war in the breakaway republic of Chechnya drags on despite periodic promises to end it.
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Will Russia be run by democrats or oligarchs? The signs are worrying. The West would rather not dwell on the extent to which Russia's market is dominated by robber barons and permeated by crime and corruption. Russia's democracy is weak, with unfair election campaigns, a compromised media, and few checks on the presidency. The West cannot afford to let Russia descend into chaos, which might mean losing control of Russia's arsenal of weapons of mass destruction, but its two-faced NATO expansion policy hurts the democrats' chances.
Three books ask what went wrong in Russia but find the wrong scapegoats: the oligarchs and neoliberal reformers. In fact, Russia's woes have much deeper roots.
What enthusiasts took for a global rush to democracy may be reversing direction, with backsliding and stalled transitions in the former Soviet Union, Africa, the Middle East. So far, one sees disarray or new strongmen much like the old; no competing ideologies seem to be beckoning. Market reforms have not been the cause in most cases. More affluent countries with Western ties seem to be sticking the course better. However the trend plays out, it should lead the administration to rethink democracy promotion. The truth is that U.S. policy is not significantly responsible for democracy's advance or retreat in the world.
