Bordering on Chaos: Guerrillas, Stockbrokers, Politicians, and Mexico's Road to Prosperity
A fast-paced, engrossing narrative, in fine journalistic style, of the inside story of the crisis in Mexico. As is to be expected from Pulitzer Prize winner Andres Oppenheimer, senior correspondent for The Miami Herald, there is much new material here -- confidential polls by the Mexican political parties, exclusive interviews with intellectuals, politicians, and Zapatista rebels, a revealing look at the panic on Wall Street, and a glimpse at the falling-out between President Carlos Salinas and his successor, which led to a recent public squabble. While Salinas complains, as he does elsewhere, that what was at stake was not corruption but a struggle over the free market policies he had embarked upon, Oppenheimer concludes instead that the origins of the Mexican problems are largely political and will be resolved by "its conversion to a working democracy among other things by striking a deal with the opposition parties to launch far-reaching electoral, media, labor, education, and anti-corruption reforms." This is a long bill of particulars, and to recite it is to realize how difficult a task Mexico faces in the next few years if the political dilemmas Oppenheimer points to are to be resolved.
Related
The U.S.-led effort to revive the peso staved off a Great Depression in Mexico. The Mexican economy is turning the corner and paying off its debt to the United States. Mexico was not broke last year; it faced a liquidity crisis. Clinton's action ensured that economic reform in Mexico--and other developing nations--continues.
Mexico has suffered through four major crises in the past two decades, but the current round, triggered by the 1994 collapse of the peso, is the most serious. Although Mexico will avoid a social explosion, it will not embark on the thorough reform it desperately needs. The reason: a large, broad minority that depends on the United States and is mainly indifferent to their country's ups and downs, economic and political. Successive American bailouts have spared Mexicans some pain but have also locked in misguided policies and an authoritarian government. Until bold new leaders arise, Mexico is condemned to repeat its sad history.
U.S. and Mexican policymakers are rushing to resolve long-standing immigration problems. Guest worker programs are on the table, but the negotiators show a troublesome myopia about the programs' implications. The supposed economic benefits of such programs may prove illusory, and the "guests" may in fact come to stay.

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