The Great Wall and the Empty Fortress: China's Search for Security
This volume argues that in its ability to project power, China remains by far the weakest of the four great powers in Asia. Also, the PRC's security remains hostage to the behavior of potential adversaries and unreliable neighbors, such as the two Koreas and Vietnam. These considerations give China a strong stake in maintaining regional stability and developing cooperative relations with its great power rivals. The book concludes with three recommendations. First, America needs to maintain current deployments in Asia in order to prevent destabilizing changes in the regional balance of power. Second, China's integration into the international order requires an effective management of conflicts of interest. Third, China should be brought into a variety of multilateral institutions. Its final words are worth repeating: Western policymakers can accommodate China when they should, persuade China when they can, and resist China when they must. The book should be widely used in courses on international relations, American foreign policy, and Asian security.
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China is headed in the right direction. Deng's successors cannot achieve his stature, and the more stable and secure China remains, the faster power will devolve to a more liberal generation. As in other Asian nations, economic development will foster political liberalization, as well as a capitalist Hong Kong and an independent Taiwan. Though decentralization is stressful, China does not suffer from the structural weaknesses that undermined the Soviet Union. Corruption and human rights abuses are severe, but citizens can vote in competitive local elections and change jobs as they wish. China should be permitted to continue a liberation unprecedented in history.
China's reform policies have created economic opportunities, but they have also unleashed political tensions. Some U.S. strategists advocate a containment strategy, yet such a strategy is both undesirable and infeasible. America's fortunes in Asia depend on the evolution of a China that is secure, cohesive, reform-oriented, and open to the world. Failed reform could easily lead to a nationalistic, obstructionist China. In recent years, Washington, while trying to engage the People's Republic, has driven it into a corner over human rights. America must develop a long-term strategy to integrate China into the world community and avert serious damage to this crucial bilateral relationship. And it must begin to do so now.
Lester Brown asks, Who Will Feed China? He forecasts food shortages there in coming decades, caused by population growth, a depleted environment, and farm production that he claims is pushing its limits. But he misgauges the potential of farmland and markets worldwide. The real problem is, who will feed Africa?
