The Rise and Decline of the Asian Century: False Starts on the Path to the Global Millennium
The author, who in 1994 was forced to leave Singapore to avoid lawsuits and imprisonment after writing a newspaper article critical of the government's political leadership, now strikes back. His argument is that all the talk about the "Asian Century" is excessively optimistic and that the conservatism, authoritarianism, and inflexibility of East Asia's economic and political institutions will interfere with the processes necessary for sustaining the high growth rates of the past. Corruption and rising crime are, he says, reaching "epidemic proportions," partly because of the moral void that authoritarian and socialist regimes create. Also, according to the author, many Asian economies are distinguished by an institutional bias against individualism. Although the book suffers from overgeneralization, the basic argument is an important one. In the information age, is rapid economic development handicapped by authoritarian institutions?
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For a nation whose founding is lost in the mists of antiquity, Japan is in many respects a very new country. Last year we celebrated the hundredth anniversary of the Meiji Restoration, which marked our entry into the modern world. This year the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which I am honored to head, observed its centennial. By contrast, the United States, which is in every respect a young nation, possesses a number of institutions that are far older than many of Japan's. The Department of State, for example, is only a dozen years short of its bicentennial, and Harvard University, with its 333-year old history, is more than three times the age of my own alma mater, Tokyo University, now in its ninety-second year.
Is China democratizing? The country's leaders do not think of democracy as people in the West generally do, but they are increasingly backing local elections, judicial independence, and oversight of Chinese Communist Party officials. How far China's liberalization will ultimately go and what Chinese politics will look like when it stops are open questions.
The West is not welcoming Asia's progress, and its short-term interests in preserving its privileged position in various global institutions are trumping its long-term interests in creating a more just and stable world order. The West has gone from being the world's problem solver to being its single biggest liability.

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