Incentives and Institutions: The Transition to a Market Economy in Russia
This remarkable book by a former Russian presidential candidate and his Japan-based colleague combines formal economic analysis, historical interpretation, and shrewd observation to explain what went wrong in Russia. The Soviet collapse is often portrayed as a great historical discontinuity. In fact, the authors argue, the economy still remains deeply connected to its past. Central economic planning had long since disappeared in practice by 1990 to become a mere overlay atop a thriving "market" of lobbying, negotiation, and malfeasance. A successful market transition would have required a strong state to create the right incentives and enforce the rules. But when the state disappeared with the Soviet Union, enterprise managers continued to operate with the same institutional structures while the lack of central discipline led to accelerated corruption and asset-stripping. The authors insist that reformers must now focus on the incentives that decision-makers actually have, not on some abstract model of a well-functioning economy. Managers look after their own interests, but if incentives are not structured to make their interests congruent with economic progress, reform and growth will stall. The current oligarchic capitalism is not simply a regrettable station on the inevitable path to capitalism; it could persist indefinitely without redirection. The authors conclude that Russia must enhance its fledgling democracy as a necessary, if not sufficient, condition for creating a market economy.
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Russia does not need a Pinochet, but it does need the Chilean economic model. For Russia to grow at self-sustaining annual rates of seven to ten percent for a decade or two -- the only way it can pull itself out of poverty -- it needs much more economic liberalization. Four reforms inspired by Chile's dramatic turnaround can help Russia out of its doldrums: pension privatization, tax reform, radical deregulation of coddled industries, and the replacement of the ruble with the euro. The indispensable element is not a strong four-star general but a team of determined economic policymakers who know that freedom works.
Russia's popular new president is better positioned than his predecessor was to enact needed reforms. But all of Vladimir Putin's efforts will come to nought unless he can do what Boris Yeltsin never did: rein in Russia's plutocrats. These ruthless oligarchs have fleeced Russia of staggering sums, seizing control of its oil industry -- one of the world's largest -- in the process. Through payoffs and intimidation, they have insinuated themselves into electoral politics and virtually immunized themselves from prosecution. None of Russia's problems -- neither its crippled economy, nor its emaciated infrastructure, nor its wheezing democracy -- will be solved while the robber barons retain their power. America cannot afford to sit on the sidelines any longer.
Russia is being called upon to accomplish the 'conversion' of its military production capacity to civilian production, yet history shows that conversion policy, even in the USA, has never worked, because "defense work has little in common with civilian work". Defence conversion should not even be regarded 'conversion' at all: "Rather it is the result of two independent and parallel actions: shedding many elements of the defense sector; and absorbing those assets into a new entrepreneurial consumer sector. The way to increase the production of sausage-making machines is to expand the sausage factory... not to annoint the rocket makers as sausage makers... The bad news here is for the managers, most of whom become unsalvageable". It is the old corporate culture that has to be bulldozed out of the way.
