Incentives and Institutions: The Transition to a Market Economy in Russia
This remarkable book by a former Russian presidential candidate and his Japan-based colleague combines formal economic analysis, historical interpretation, and shrewd observation to explain what went wrong in Russia. The Soviet collapse is often portrayed as a great historical discontinuity. In fact, the authors argue, the economy still remains deeply connected to its past. Central economic planning had long since disappeared in practice by 1990 to become a mere overlay atop a thriving "market" of lobbying, negotiation, and malfeasance. A successful market transition would have required a strong state to create the right incentives and enforce the rules. But when the state disappeared with the Soviet Union, enterprise managers continued to operate with the same institutional structures while the lack of central discipline led to accelerated corruption and asset-stripping. The authors insist that reformers must now focus on the incentives that decision-makers actually have, not on some abstract model of a well-functioning economy. Managers look after their own interests, but if incentives are not structured to make their interests congruent with economic progress, reform and growth will stall. The current oligarchic capitalism is not simply a regrettable station on the inevitable path to capitalism; it could persist indefinitely without redirection. The authors conclude that Russia must enhance its fledgling democracy as a necessary, if not sufficient, condition for creating a market economy.
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Ukraine has yet to solve the challenge of life after communism. Hyperinflation is just a memory and democracy is well entrenched, but production is declining, state industries remain unsold, and investors have largely stayed away. With nationalists ascendant in Russia, Ukraine needs Western money and diplomatic backing to preserve its independence and keep reform on track. A free, democratic Ukraine can serve as a model for Russia, prevent a new Soviet Union, and promote stability among its neighbors. A civil war between its Russified east and its more Ukrainian west, or its absorption into a new Russian empire, would reverberate throughout Europe.
Mikhail Gorbachev's reforms have unleashed an unprecedented tide of protests and demonstrations across the U.S.S.R. in which national grievances occupy a central place alongside economic unrest. From Alma Ata to Abkhazia, from Tallinn to Tbilisi, virtually no region of this vast and complex multinational society appears immune to the rising tide of national self-assertion. Whether in the form of anti-Russian demonstrations, as in Kazakhstan and Georgia, or in the emergence of new sociopolitical movements demanding greater economic and political autonomy, such as the Popular Fronts of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, or in more volatile outbursts of communal violence that have resulted in a tragic loss of lives and many thousands of refugees, as in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan-all pose a growing threat to Gorbachev's leadership and to the future of his reforms.
Russia's era of romantic democracy is over. Boris Yeltsin's victory in the 1996 elections marked the rise of a new class of oligarchs who have profited from post-Cold War chaos. But Westerners who predict a return to authoritarianism and cultural stagnation overlook how far Russia has come since the late 1980s, and how it has opened to the world. It is not the Soviet Union, nor the land of the czars. In the short term, most Russians cannot hope for much, especially from their leaders. But with its political reforms, 98 percent privatized economy, and educated, urban population, Russia has a great deal going for it-maybe more than China.

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