The Pivotal States: A New Framework for U.S. Policy in the Developing World
The Cold War gave the United States a compass to orient its policies toward the developing world -- a compass now gone. Building on and revising an argument originally put forward in Foreign Affairs, the editors offer a new conceptual framework for U.S. policy based on two pillars: states decisive to the fate of their regions and the crosscutting issues that affect them all. The pivotal states are Indonesia, India, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, South Africa, Brazil, Algeria, and Mexico; the cross-cutting issues are population growth, environment, ethnic conflict, human rights, and economics. Since hardly any author can write authoritatively on all these countries and problems, an edited book is needed. To their credit, the editors have assembled a strong, cohesive team. Moreover, their list of pivotal states is interesting. Only Turkey and Egypt rank equally high on the priority list of U.S. defense planners, as authors Don Daniel and Andrew Ross point out. On the other hand, Ukraine and Saudi Arabia are high on government lists, yet these editors do not consider them so pivotal. But this is a book about making choices -- and how to start thinking strategically about the developing world.
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The United States is spreading its aid and efforts too thin in the developing world. It should focus on a small number of "pivotal states": countries whose fate determines the survival and success of the surrounding region and ultimately the stability of the international system. The list should include Mexico, Brazil, Algeria, Egypt, South Africa, Turkey, India, Pakistan, and Indonesia. A discriminating strategy for shoring up the developing world is a wise way to address traditional security threats and new transnational issues; it might be thought of as the new, improved domino theory. If effective, it could forestall the move in Congress to wipe out nearly all foreign aid.
IT is nearly ten years since Pakistan became an ally of the West. In May 1954, Pakistan signed the Mutual Defense Assistance Agreement with the United States. Later in that year it became a member of SEATO along with the United States, Britain, France, Thailand, the Philippines, Australia and New Zealand. A year later, it joined the Baghdad Pact, another mutual defense organization, with Britain, Turkey, Iran and Iraq. The United States has not joined this organization, but has remained closely associated with it since its inception. In 1958, when Iraq left this pact, it was renamed CENTO (Central Treaty Organization): it continued to comprise Turkey, Iran and Pakistan as its regional members. Early in 1959, Pakistan signed (as did Turkey and Iran) a bilateral Agreement of Coöperation with the United States, which was designed further to reinforce the defensive purposes of CENTO.
India's growing economic and diplomatic prominence is unlikely to be derailed by its territorial dispute with Pakistan over Kashmir. But given the risk that the Kashmir issue could spark a nuclear war, it is in India's best interest that it be resolved. Washington should use its influence with Islamabad to broker an agreement and thereby cement its growing strategic partnership with New Delhi.
