Disaffected Democracies: What's Troubling the Trilateral Countries?
The Trilateral Commission famously warned 25 years ago that slow growth, rising inflation, social decay, and bloated government were putting democratic institutions in the industrialized world at risk. In this important new study, leading scholars revisit the issue and discover disturbing trends. Happily, this time there is no evidence of declining support for democracy. But the authors do discern a gradual waning of public confidence in political leaders, parties, and institutions. Pharr and Putnam argue that this dissatisfaction stems from disappointment in politics and government performance rather than economic malaise or the Cold War's end. But as Pharr points out, the Japanese people's declining confidence in government could in fact galvanize reform of democratic institutions. These chapters are complemented by empirically rich accounts by European, Japanese, and American specialists that discuss changing public attitudes toward government and their national variations. For instance, Peter Katzenstein argues that small European states, with their generous social welfare programs and inclusive political regimes, have lost the least amount of public confidence. The picture that emerges is of an advanced industrial world in transition. But the destination -- whether dangerously dysfunctional polities or renewed political participation -- is still unknown.
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South Africa's political miracle may not be followed by an economic one. Despite its claims of superiority to black governments to the north, the National Party pursued economic policies like most African countries'--import substitution, a wasteful public sector--leading to staggering black unemployment. Only slow private sector growth can lift the black majority out of poverty. But the National Unity government, while avoiding the worst populist temptations, must win citizens over to structural adjustment with gains in education, infrastructure investment, and affirmative action. Of those given little, much is asked.
The Asian financial crisis had a side benefit: prodding the Japanese government to fix its economy. But as the sense of urgency eased, so too did the momentum for change. The Liberal Democratic Party, never a true champion of reform, now blocks deregulation from every angle. Wasteful public spending has created little but debt. And the public's trust in its government is all but gone. Recovery would require Japan's politicians to give up the many benefits of the status quo, which they will not do without a fight. So Japan's reforms are stalled permanently. Its economy is, too.
Fidel Castro is not on the way out anytime soon. In fact, he may be the best guarantor of Cuba's peaceful transition to a market-oriented economy and more democratic government. A good analogy is with Spanish autocrat Francisco Franco. Like Franco, Castro allied himself with the losing side in the grand sweep of history, but he has slowly reintegrated his nation with the world by pushing tourism, seeking foreign investment, gradually liberalizing the political system, and expanding civil liberties. Castro has more support in Cuba than many in the West think, and the United States should begin a phaseout of its embargo tied to Cuba's economic and political performance.

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