GATS 2000: New Directions in Services Trade Liberalization
The failure to launch a new round of multilateral trade liberalization at the November 1999 meeting in Seattle indicates how contentious trade policy has become -- and how unprepared the trade ministers were. They would have benefited from these two books. GATS 2000 contains conference papers on how best to proceed with liberalization of international trade in services, an issue that was merely opened by the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) in the Uruguay Round concluded in 1994. It dissects the complex issues involved, including the extensive but varying degrees of national regulation, and contains thoughtful suggestions for the coming decade.
Another issue not fully addressed in the Uruguay Round is the rocky relationship between trade rules and environmental policy. Some environmentalists would like to use trade sanctions, which may conflict with international trade commitments, to further their environmental objectives. Sampson, a former WTO trade official, points out that the WTO requires that new concessions be reciprocated by concessions from the other side. Sympathetic to the concerns of environmentalists, he urges the negotiation of multilateral environmental agreements issue by issue, with disputes settled within the framework of those agreements; in turn, such agreements would be coordinated to harmonize with WTO rules. A thoughtful treatment of a sensitive topic.
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Washington faces two enormous tasks in forming economic policy: it must preserve U.S. economic supremacy while defusing the bitter resentment that America's clout provokes abroad. A grand bargain with developing countries is badly needed. For starters, America should slash its trade barriers in agriculture and textiles in return for a global accord on intellectual-property rights.
The performance of the world economy in 1983 is difficult to characterize. For the industrialized market economies--members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development--it was the year of the long-awaited recovery after the second oil shock of 1979-80. World trade began to revive after two years of stagnation and decline. There was continuing good news about inflation in the OECD area. Business and especially consumer confidence improved. A major rupture in the world financial system was averted through effective, concerted crisis management led by the International Monetary Fund, whose role was further enhanced by an infusion of new resources. The heavily-indebted developing countries demonstrated considerable progress in external adjustment: indeed the largest Latin American debtors accomplished an amazing turnaround in trade performance.
The next World Bank president will confront a nearly impossible challenge: saving the institution from a curious alliance of conservatives and radical activists that threatens to undercut its financial viability and effectiveness. Failure to head off the danger will mean the gradual decline of the best tool the world has for managing globalization, just when that tool is more needed than ever.

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